Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 20′Toulouse, yellow card:Foul
- 34′Toulouse, VAR review:Penalty cancelled
- Half-time
- 46′Lille, substitution:off
- 46′Lille, substitution:off
- 57′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 57′Lille, substitution:off
- 58′Lille, substitution:off
- 65′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 66′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 71′Lille, substitution:off
- 71′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 72′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 73′Lille, goal:0–1
- Full-time0 – 1
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Toulouse
Lille
Match report
Ueda strike gives Lille win at Toulouse despite home dominance
Lille won 1-0 away at Toulouse in a Ligue 1 Regular Season - 3 fixture played at Stadium de Toulouse. The game stayed level at 0-0 through the opening 45 minutes before Ayase Ueda broke the deadlock in the 73rd minute, turning the contest in the visitors' favour and settling the final outcome.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Toulouse pressed for long spells and finished with the greater share of possession at 53% to 47%, alongside a heavy volume of attempts on goal, but could not find a route past Berke Özer. Lille, more clinical if less dominant territorially, made their solitary meaningful moment count through Ueda's second-half finish to seal the points.
The result lifted Lille to the top of the table on seven points from three games, while Toulouse remained 16th with just one point from the same number of matches, a gulf reflected in the closing scoreline despite the hosts' territorial edge.
Özer produced a goalkeeping display worthy of the man-of-the-match rating of 9.64, keeping Toulouse off the scoresheet despite facing 24 shots. Ueda's 73rd-minute goal proved the difference at the other end.
Toulouse's 24 shots to Lille's 10 underlined how one-sided the attacking territory was, even though it was the visitors who found the net.
Lille won 1–0 away against Toulouse (half-time 0–0).
Toulouse met Lille in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Thursday, 3 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadium de Toulouse. Referee: Mathieu Vernice.
Key moments
- 73' Goal: Ayase Ueda — 0–1 · Watch Ayase Ueda's goal video (73')
Starting line-ups
Toulouse (4-2-3-1)
Lille (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Toulouse 31%, the draw 29%, Lille 40%. It finished Toulouse 0–1 Lille.
Lille's rating edge outweighs Toulouse's home ground — Lille are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Lille the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Lille at 40%?
Lille sit 150 points higher on our strength rating — 1739 to 1889. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,128 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Toulouse's column. Across 10,889 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 27–28–45.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Toulouse at 31%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,956. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lille average 13 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 150 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Lille have gained 63 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,288 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Toulouse vs Lille final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Toulouse 0–1 Lille. Explore more on the Toulouse and Lille team pages or the Ligue 1 page.