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- 29′Monaco, goal:1–0assist
- 38′Monaco, goal:2–0assist
- Half-time2 – 0
- 46′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 47′Monaco, yellow card:
- 48′Toulouse, penalty goal:2–1Penalty
- 51′Monaco, substitution:off
- 54′Monaco, yellow card:
- 58′Monaco, substitution:off
- 58′Monaco, substitution:off
- 59′Toulouse, goal:2–2assist
- 70′Toulouse, yellow card:
- 71′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 75′Monaco, substitution:off
- 75′Monaco, substitution:off
- 77′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 84′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 84′Toulouse, substitution:off
- 90+3′Toulouse, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 2
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Monaco
Toulouse
Match report
Toulouse come from two down to draw 2-2 at leaders Monaco
Monaco's perfect home hold on a Ligue 1 Matchday 6 fixture slipped at Stade Louis II, where Toulouse recovered from two goals down to draw 2-2. The result left Monaco top of the table on 14 points from six games, while Toulouse remained 13th on six points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The hosts took control in the first half. Edan Diop opened the scoring in the 29th minute, converting a pass from Aleksandr Golovin, and nine minutes later Matthis Abline doubled the lead from Diop's assist. Monaco went into the interval 2-0 ahead, having been the dominant side with the bulk of the possession.
Toulouse transformed the contest after the break. Casper Tengstedt scored from the penalty spot in the 48th minute to cut the deficit to 2-1, and in the 59th minute he turned provider, setting up Sion Oppong for the equaliser. Neither side found a winner in the remaining half hour, and the points were shared.
Casper Tengstedt scored a penalty and set up Sion Oppong's equaliser, earning the match's highest rating of 8.1 as Toulouse rescued a point after trailing 2-0.
Monaco had 16 shots to Toulouse's 9, yet each side put four efforts on target.
Monaco and Toulouse drew 2–2 (half-time 2–0).
Monaco met Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade Louis II. Referee: Ruddy Buquet. Attendance: 5,294.
Key moments
- 29' Goal: Edan Diop (assist: Aleksandr Golovin) — 1–0
- 38' Goal: Matthis Abline (assist: Edan Diop) — 2–0
- 48' Goal (penalty): Casper Tengstedt — 2–1
- 59' Goal: Sion Oppong (assist: Casper Tengstedt) — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Monaco (4-2-3-1)
Toulouse (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Monaco 56%, the draw 24%, Toulouse 20%. It finished Monaco 2–2 Toulouse.
Monaco's rating edge carries it — Monaco are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Monaco's 56%. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Monaco at 56%?
Monaco sit 145 points higher on our strength rating — 1798 to 1653. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,330 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 61–21–18.
Why only 56%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Monaco's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Monaco scored +0.57 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,820 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Monaco won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Toulouse. The record is 3 wins for Monaco, 2 draws and 1 win for Toulouse. These were 6 Ligue 1 games played between 20 December 2023 and 25 April 2026. Latest meeting: 25 April 2026 — Toulouse 2–2 Monaco. In 5,175 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 43.9%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Monaco vs Toulouse final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Monaco 2–2 Toulouse. Explore more on the Monaco and Toulouse team pages or the Ligue 1 page.