Estac Troyes vs Marseille — Ligue 1: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsLigue 1 McDonald’sYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 22′Estac Troyes, yellow card:
- 45′Marseille, yellow card:
- Half-time
- 50′Marseille, goal:0–1assist
- 58′Estac Troyes, yellow card:
- 61′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 63′Marseille, substitution:off
- 63′Marseille, substitution:off
- 69′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 73′Marseille, substitution:off
- 77′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 78′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 78′Estac Troyes, substitution:off
- 87′Marseille, substitution:off
- 87′Marseille, substitution:off
- 88′Estac Troyes, yellow card:
- 90+6′Estac Troyes, yellow card:
- 90+8′Marseille, penalty goal:0–2Penalty
- Full-time0 – 2
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Estac Troyes
Marseille
Match report
Marseille beat Estac Troyes 2-0 with stoppage-time penalty
Marseille won 2-0 away to Estac Troyes at the Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1 on Matchday 6, with Amine Harit's second-half goal and a penalty from Himad Abdelli in the 90+8 minute settling a contest that had been goalless at half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The deadlock held through a first half without a goal, and it was broken five minutes after the interval. Emerson supplied the pass and Harit finished to make it 0-1 to the visitors in the 50th minute. Troyes then had 40 minutes to find an equaliser but could not draw level.
With the match heading into added time, Abdelli converted a penalty in the 90+8 minute to make it 0-2 and remove any doubt. The result lifted Marseille from 17th to 13th, on six points from six games, while Troyes slipped from 16th to 17th on four points.
Marseille arrived having lost all five of their latest official games, scoring four goals and conceding 12, so the win broke a sequence of defeats. Troyes had lost their last three, including 2-0 defeats at Lille and Angers.
Jeffrey de Lange earned the highest rating among the performers listed, 7.56, for Marseille. Abdelli, rated 7.49, scored the stoppage-time penalty that made it 0-2.
Troyes had 63 per cent of the possession but were beaten, with Marseille on 37 per cent.
Marseille won 2–0 away against Estac Troyes (half-time 0–0).
Estac Troyes met Marseille in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade de l'Aube. Referee: Guillaume Paradis. Attendance: 19,022.
Team pages: Estac Troyes · Marseille · Ligue 1
Key moments
- 50' Goal: Amine Harit (assist: Emerson) — 0–1 · Watch Amine Harit's goal video (50')
- 90+8' Goal (penalty): Himad Abdelli — 0–2 · Watch Himad Abdelli's goal video (90+8')
Starting line-ups
Estac Troyes (4-2-3-1)
Marseille (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Estac Troyes 26%, the draw 28%, Marseille 46%. It finished Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille.
Marseille's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Marseille are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball plus the early-season home fade on top give Marseille the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Marseille at 46%?
Marseille sit 110 points higher on our strength rating — 1583 to 1692. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,822 such games. Marseille hold 10 more possession points (55 to 45 in recent games) across a 110-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,622 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Estac Troyes's column. Across 11,278 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 29–33–38.
Why only 46%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 46% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Estac Troyes at 26%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Estac Troyes win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,145. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Estac Troyes are newly promoted — game 6 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. Out: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, a star player, and Timothy Weah, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Estac Troyes vs Marseille final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Amine Harit's goal against Estac Troyes (50').
- Watch Himad Abdelli's goal against Estac Troyes (90+8').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille. Explore more on the Estac Troyes and Marseille team pages or the Ligue 1 page.