Match Events
- 7′Ajax, goal:1–0assist
- 17′Ajax, yellow card:Foul
- 19′NEC Nijmegen, penalty goal:1–1Penalty
- 33′NEC Nijmegen, yellow card:Persistent fouling
- Half-time1 – 1
- 54′NEC Nijmegen, yellow card:Foul
- 60′Ajax, substitution:off
- 60′Ajax, substitution:off
- 67′Ajax, yellow card:Foul
- 73′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 73′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 73′Ajax, substitution:off
- 73′Ajax, substitution:off
- 80′Ajax, substitution:off
- 82′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 82′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Assist
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Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Match report
Ajax held 1-1 by NEC Nijmegen after early Arokodare goal
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen shared the points in a 1-1 draw at the Johan Cruijff Arena on Eredivisie Matchday 8. Both goals arrived inside the opening 19 minutes, and neither side could find a winner in an otherwise cagey second half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Ajax struck first in the seventh minute. Jorthy Mokio supplied the pass and Toluwalase Arokodare converted to make it 1-0. The lead lasted only 12 minutes. NEC were awarded a penalty and Tjaronn Chery scored from the spot to level at 1-1, the score at half-time.
After the break, Ajax kept most of the ball, finishing with 61 per cent possession, and ended with 18 shots to 8 for the visitors. Only five of those efforts were on target, however, and NEC, who managed two shots on target themselves, held firm. Neither side was reduced to ten men, with two yellow cards shown to each.
The draw left Ajax fifth in the table on 15 points from eight games, while NEC Nijmegen, managed by Dick Schreuder, stayed eleventh on nine points.
Toluwalase Arokodare scored Ajax's goal in the seventh minute and was the highest-rated player on the pitch with 7.86. Gonzalo Crettaz of NEC Nijmegen was next on 7.45.
Ajax outshot NEC Nijmegen by 18 shots to 8, yet could not turn that territorial control into a second goal.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1 (half-time 1–1).
Ajax met NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Johan Cruijff Arena. Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk.
Team pages: Ajax · NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Tolu Arokodare (assist: Jorthy Mokio) — 1–0
- 19' Goal (penalty): Tjaronn Chery — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Ajax (4-3-3)
NEC Nijmegen (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Ajax 56%, the draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 22%. It finished Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen.
Ajax's rating edge carries it — Ajax are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Ajax's 56%. The draw at 22% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Ajax at 56%?
Ajax sit 144 points higher on our strength rating — 1685 to 1542. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,330 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 63–22–15.
Why only 56%?
NEC Nijmegen sit -0.37 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,497 such games where the class table expected 35.9%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 4.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Ajax have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than NEC Nijmegen in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. NEC Nijmegen have shed 72 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,577 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Eredivisie fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Ajax and NEC Nijmegen team pages or the Eredivisie page.