Match report
Blackburn overturn Millwall in three-goal home victory
Blackburn beat Millwall 3-1 at Ewood Park in a Championship fixture on matchday seven. Oladapo Afolayan opened the scoring in the 41st minute, assisted by Sam Morsy, sending Tony Mowbray's side in ahead at half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Millwall responded early in the second half when Lyndon Dykes converted a penalty in the 51st minute to level the score at 1-1. Blackburn regained the lead through Afolayan again, this time assisted by Tom Atcheson in the 58th minute, before Andri Guðjohnsen added a third deep into stoppage time, teed up by Jayden Fevrier, to make it 3-1.
Blackburn held the edge in shots despite seeing less of the ball, registering 18 attempts to Millwall's 15 with four on target compared to their opponents' two. The home side also won more corners, though they picked up more bookings across the match.
Afolayan struck twice for Blackburn, including the opener before half-time, and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.7.
Blackburn managed 18 shots to Millwall's 15 despite having only 45% of possession, underlining their greater threat in front of goal.
Blackburn beat Millwall 3–1 (half-time 1–0).
Blackburn met Millwall in the Championship (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC at Ewood Park. Referee: Josh Smith.
Team pages: Blackburn · Millwall · Championship
Key moments
- 41' Goal: Oladapo Afolayan (assist: Sam Morsy) — 1–0
- 51' Goal (penalty): Lyndon Dykes — 1–1
- 58' Goal: Oladapo Afolayan (assist: Tom Atcheson) — 2–1
- 90' Goal: Andri Guðjohnsen (assist: Jayden Fevrier) — 3–1
Starting line-ups
Blackburn (5-4-1)
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Blackburn 27%, the draw 31%, Millwall 42%. It finished Blackburn 3–1 Millwall.
Millwall's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Millwall are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus a weak Championship home advantage on top give Millwall the lean. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Millwall at 42%?
Millwall sit 127 points higher on our strength rating — 1433 to 1560. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,164 such games. Millwall sit -0.33 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 39.0% of 2,436 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,425 games vs 44.9% across all 100,077 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 34–27–39.
Why only 42%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 42% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 31% and Blackburn at 27%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Blackburn win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,797. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Millwall are missing 3 regular starters — Joshua Coburn, Casper De Norre, Jenson Metcalfe — about 38% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Millwall are winless in their last 10 visits to Blackburn. "Cursed ground" stories don't survive the receipts: winless visitors won 20.5% of 5,684 return visits vs 21.4% class-expected — the rating's own read already covers it. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Blackburn vs Millwall final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Blackburn 3–1 Millwall. Explore more on the Blackburn and Millwall team pages or the Championship page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Blackburn vs Millwall?
Blackburn beat Millwall 3–1 (half-time 1–0).
›Who scored in Blackburn vs Millwall?
Oladapo Afolayan (41') for Blackburn; Lyndon Dykes (51') (penalty) for Millwall; Oladapo Afolayan (58') for Blackburn; Andri Guðjohnsen (90') for Blackburn.
›Where can I watch Blackburn vs Millwall highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Blackburn 3–1 Millwall are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Millwall?
Blackburn and Millwall have met 10 times — 6 wins for Blackburn, 1 win for Millwall and 3 draws.