Match report
Burnley denied by Mesík's 90+6 equaliser as Charlton snatch 2-2 draw
Burnley were pegged back at the very death at Turf Moor, drawing 2-2 with Charlton in a Championship Matchday 10 fixture after leading twice. Ivan Mesík's goal in the 90+6 minute, set up by Harvey Knibbs, spared the visitors a defeat that would have extended their winless run.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Burnley took the lead in the 36th minute when Jacob Bruun Larsen scored from Joshua Laurent's assist, and they went in at the break 1-0 ahead. Charlton levelled five minutes after the restart through Kayne Ramsay, who finished a chance created by Lloyd Jones.
The home side restored their advantage in the 57th minute, Largie Ramazani scoring from an Igor assist to make it 2-1. Burnley then held that lead for more than half an hour, but Charlton pressed to the end and got their reward deep into stoppage time.
The draw lifted Burnley from 22nd to 21st on eight points, while Charlton moved from 12th to 13th on 14 points and are now without a win in 7 games. Burnley host Wolves on Friday 16 October in the Championship, and Charlton travel to Watford the following day.
Largie Ramazani was the highest-rated player on the pitch at 7.7, scoring Burnley's second goal in the 57th minute. Ivan Mesík, who rescued the point for Charlton with the last-gasp equaliser, followed on 7.53.
Burnley had 18 shots to Charlton's 9, yet the visitors landed five on target to the hosts' four.
Burnley and Charlton drew 2–2 (half-time 1–0).
Burnley met Charlton in the Championship (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Turf Moor. Referee: Anthony Backhouse.
Team pages: Burnley · Charlton · Championship
Key moments
- 36' Goal: Jacob Bruun Larsen (assist: Josh Laurent) — 1–0
- 50' Goal: Kayne Ramsay (assist: Lloyd Jones) — 1–1
- 57' Goal: Largie Ramazani (assist: Igor Júlio) — 2–1
- 90' Goal: Ivan Mesík (assist: Harvey Knibbs) — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
Charlton (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Burnley 55%, the draw 26%, Charlton 19%. It finished Burnley 2–2 Charlton.
Burnley's strength edge drives a clear lead — We give Burnley 55% mainly because they sit 134 points higher on our strength rating, 1476 to 1342, though home sides in the Championship tend to under-perform, which pulls slightly towards Charlton. The draw sits at 26%, starting from the usual rate for a gap this size and nudged up by the Championship's higher draw rate.
Why Burnley at 55%?
Burnley sit 134 points higher on our strength rating — 1476 to 1342. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,348 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 60–20–20.
Why only 55%?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,462 games vs 44.6% across all 101,160 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,166. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Burnley have averaged 13 percentage points more possession than Charlton in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Burnley have shed 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,595 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Burnley vs Charlton final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Burnley 2–2 Charlton. Explore more on the Burnley and Charlton team pages or the Championship page.