Bolton vs Middlesbrough — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsEFLYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow6 clips- 13′Middlesbrough, goal:0–1assist
- 31′Middlesbrough, goal:0–2assist
- 39′Middlesbrough, own goal:0–3Own goal
- 45′Bolton, goal:1–3assist
- Half-time1 – 3
- 46′Bolton, substitution:off
- 46′Bolton, substitution:off
- 55′Bolton, substitution:off
- 55′Bolton, substitution:off
- 63′Bolton, yellow card:Persistent fouling
- 69′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 73′Middlesbrough, goal:1–4assist
- 74′Bolton, substitution:off
- 78′Middlesbrough, goal:1–5assist
- 79′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 79′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 79′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 86′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 5
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Bolton
Middlesbrough
Match report
Middlesbrough rout Bolton 5-1 to go top of the Championship
Middlesbrough moved to the top of the Championship with a 5-1 win over Bolton at the Toughsheet Community Stadium on matchday 12. The visitors, third in the table before kick-off, finished the night first on 25 points, 11 clear of 17th-placed Bolton, who stayed in the bottom half on 14.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Aidan Morris opened the scoring in the 13th minute from an Amario Cozier-Duberry assist, and Will Lankshear doubled the lead in the 31st, set up by Tommy Conway. Eight minutes later Lewis Brunt turned the ball into his own net to make it 3-0, a lead that looked decisive well before the break.
Bolton did pull one back in first-half stoppage time, Theo Bair scoring in the 45+2 minute from Gaizka Larrazabal's pass. There was no second-half recovery, though. Cozier-Duberry added a fourth in the 73rd minute and Lankshear struck again in the 78th, both goals created by Riley McGree, completing a six-goal match. Middlesbrough are now unbeaten in 7 games.
Both sides are at home on Saturday 31 October, Middlesbrough against Charlton and Bolton against Bristol City, in the Championship.
Will Lankshear scored twice, in the 31st and 78th minutes, and earned the top rating of the night at 9.15. Cozier-Duberry supplied an assist and a goal, and McGree set up two.
Middlesbrough had 31 shots to Bolton's 12, 12 of them on target against the hosts' four.
Middlesbrough won 5–1 away against Bolton (half-time 1–3).
Bolton met Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off was Friday, 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Toughsheet Community Stadium. Referee: Simon Hooper.
Team pages: Bolton · Middlesbrough · Championship
Key moments
- 13' Goal: Aidan Morris (assist: Amario Cozier-Duberry) — 0–1 · Watch Aidan Morris's goal video (13')
- 31' Goal: Will Lankshear (assist: Tommy Conway) — 0–2 · Watch Will Lankshear's goal video (31')
- 39' Goal (own goal): Lewis Brunt — 0–3 · Watch Lewis Brunt's goal video (39')
- 45' Goal: Theo Bair (assist: Gaizka Larrazabal) — 1–3 · Watch Theo Bair's goal video (45')
- 73' Goal: Amario Cozier-Duberry (assist: Riley McGree) — 1–4 · Watch Amario Cozier-Duberry's goal video (73')
- 78' Goal: Will Lankshear (assist: Riley McGree) — 1–5 · Watch Will Lankshear's goal video (78')
Starting line-ups
Bolton (4-2-3-1)
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bolton 28%, the draw 24%, Middlesbrough 48%. It finished Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough.
Middlesbrough's rating gap outweighs Bolton's home ground — Middlesbrough are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and a weak Championship home advantage on top gives Middlesbrough the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Middlesbrough at 48%?
Middlesbrough sit 199 points higher on our strength rating — 1530 to 1331. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.4% of 7,177 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,487 games vs 44.6% across all 107,838 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–25–45.
Why only 48%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 48% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Bolton at 28%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,372. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Middlesbrough have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Bolton in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Middlesbrough have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bolton vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Aidan Morris's goal against Bolton (13').
- Watch Will Lankshear's goal against Bolton (31').
- Watch Lewis Brunt's own goal video (39').
- Watch Theo Bair's goal against Middlesbrough (45').
- Watch Amario Cozier-Duberry's goal against Bolton (73').
- Watch Will Lankshear's goal against Bolton (78').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Bolton and Middlesbrough team pages or the Championship page.