Match report
Late Joly strike earns Rodez a 2-2 draw against Pau
Rodez and Pau shared the points in a 2-2 draw in Ligue 2 matchday four at Stade Paul-Lignon, a result that leaves Santini's side third and Debes' visitors eleventh in the table. The game swung back and forth from the opening minutes through to a late equaliser, producing four goals across the ninety.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Pau made the perfect start when B. Leye finished from Jessy Benet's assist inside two minutes to make it 0-1. Rodez responded through Ibrahima Baldé, teed up by Raphael Lipinski, to level at 1-1 in the 28th minute, but Leye struck again six minutes later, converting an Anthony Briançon assist to restore Pau's lead at 1-2, a score that held into the interval.
The second half went quiet until Octave Joly, assisted by Mathis Magnin, netted in the 83rd minute to draw Rodez level at 2-2, a score that stood until the final whistle. Rodez dominated territory with 58 percent possession but managed only seven shots to Pau's fourteen, while collecting 18 fouls and two yellow cards against Pau's one.
B. Leye scored twice for Pau, including the opener inside two minutes, and was rated 7.9 for his display.
Despite having far less of the ball, Pau outshot Rodez fourteen to seven across the match.
Rodez and PAU drew 2–2 (half-time 1–2).
Rodez met PAU in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Friday, 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC at Stade Paul-Lignon. Referee: Faouzi Benchabane.
Key moments
- 2' Goal: Babacar Leye (assist: Jessy Benet) — 0–1 · Watch Babacar Leye's goal video (2')
- 28' Goal: Ibrahima Baldé (assist: Raphael Lipinski) — 1–1 · Watch Ibrahima Baldé's goal video (28')
- 37' Goal: Babacar Leye (assist: Anthony Briançon) — 1–2 · Watch Babacar Leye's goal video (37')
- 83' Goal: Octave Joly (assist: Mathis Magnin) — 2–2 · Watch Octave Joly's goal video (83')
Starting line-ups
Rodez (5-3-2)
PAU (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Rodez 55%, the draw 26%, PAU 19%. It finished Rodez 2–2 PAU.
Rodez's rating edge carries it — Rodez are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Rodez's 55%. The draw at 26% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Rodez at 55%?
Rodez sit 197 points higher on our strength rating — 1633 to 1436. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,747 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 63–20–17.
Why only 55%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Rodez's column. Across 10,741 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,891. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
PAU average 12 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 197 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Rodez have gained 71 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,240 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Rodez vs PAU final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 2 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Babacar Leye's goal against Rodez (2').
- Watch Ibrahima Baldé's goal against PAU (28').
- Watch Babacar Leye's goal against Rodez (37').
- Watch Octave Joly's goal against PAU (83').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Rodez 2–2 PAU. Explore more on the Rodez and PAU team pages or the Ligue 2 page.