FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 38′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 67′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 68′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 68′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 72′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:Foul
- 73′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 75′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 75′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 80′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 90+1′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:Foul
- 90+2′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- Full-time
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Match report
Mainz and Paderborn play out goalless draw in Bundesliga opener
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 shared a goalless draw at the Mewa Arena in the opening round of the Bundesliga season, with the scoreline finishing 0-0 after both halves failed to produce a goal. There were no recorded goals, cards for red offences, or other notable incidents to shift the game's momentum, leaving both sides to settle for a share of the points on matchday one.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Mainz dominated large spells of the contest, holding 52% of possession and registering 22 shots to Paderborn's 10, with four efforts on target compared to none from the visitors. Despite that territorial and attacking edge, Urs Fischer's side could not find a breakthrough, while Ralf Kettemann's Paderborn held firm defensively without threatening greatly at the other end.
The draw leaves Mainz seventh and Paderborn eighth in the early table, each having taken a single point from their opening match. Referee Tobias Stieler oversaw a contest that produced one yellow card for the hosts and two for the visitors, but no dismissals, as both teams began their campaigns with a share of the spoils.
Nahuel Noll was rated the standout of the match with a 7.6 mark despite neither scoring nor assisting, while Danny da Costa and Dominik Kohr also impressed for Mainz with ratings of 7.54 and 7.22 respectively.
Mainz's 22 shots to Paderborn's 10 underlined their greater attacking threat, even though neither side managed to score.
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
FSV Mainz 05 met SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC at Mewa Arena. Referee: Tobias Stieler.
Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
Starting line-ups
FSV Mainz 05 (3-1-4-2)
SC Paderborn 07 (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FSV Mainz 05 59%, the draw 24%, SC Paderborn 07 17%. It finished FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07.
FSV Mainz 05's rating edge carries it — FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover on top gives FSV Mainz 05 a clear lead. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why FSV Mainz 05 at 59%?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 187 points higher on our strength rating — 1877 to 1689. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,750 such games. FSV Mainz 05 sit -0.33 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,392 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 67–19–14.
Why only 59%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims FSV Mainz 05's column. Across 10,761 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,023. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Paderborn 07 average 6 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 187 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. FSV Mainz 05 have gained 75 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,243 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 team pages or the Bundesliga page.