Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
- 54′Hamburger SV, yellow card:
- 61′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 67′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 67′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 77′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 77′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 78′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 78′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 78′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 82′Hamburger SV, yellow card:
- 84′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 85′Hamburger SV, yellow card:
- 88′Hamburger SV, goal:1–0assist
- 89′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
Match report
Hamburger SV edge VfB Stuttgart with late Muheim goal
Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at the Volksparkstadion in a Bundesliga Matchday 6 fixture, Miro Muheim scoring in the 88th minute after a goalless first half and a second period in which neither side could find a way through until the closing stages.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The visitors had far more of the ball, holding 66% of possession to Hamburg's 34%, and outshot the hosts 23 to 14, with five of those efforts on target against three. Stuttgart also won nine corners to Hamburg's five, yet the home side defended in numbers and waited for their opening.
It arrived two minutes from the end of normal time. Zakaria El Ouahdi supplied the pass and Muheim finished to make it 1-0, leaving Stuttgart no time to respond. Hamburg collected three yellow cards in the match, while Stuttgart were not booked.
The result lifted Hamburg from 13th to eighth on nine points, three clear of Stuttgart, who dropped from 12th to 13th on six. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Hamburger SV a 20% chance of winning. Hamburg travel to SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Saturday, while Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday.
Muheim scored the only goal of the match, his 88th-minute finish from El Ouahdi's assist, and earned a rating of 7.77. Stuttgart's Bilal El Khannouss was the top-rated player on the pitch at 7.82 despite finishing on the losing side.
Stuttgart dominated the ball with 66% possession but still lost, as Hamburg made their one real chance count.
Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Hamburger SV met VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at Volksparkstadion. Referee: Robert Hartmann. Attendance: 57,000.
Team pages: Hamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 88' Goal: Miro Muheim (assist: Zakaria El Ouahdi) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Hamburger SV (3-5-2)
VfB Stuttgart (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Hamburger SV 20%, the draw 21%, VfB Stuttgart 59%. It finished Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart.
Stuttgart's strength edge drives a clear lead — We give VfB Stuttgart 59% mainly because our strength rating has them 199 points higher, 1775 to 1577, and it being so early in the season trims Hamburger SV's usual home boost. The draw sits at 21%, just under the usual 22% for a gap this size, as both sides' recent games average 3.5 goals, outweighing the slight early-season lift for draws.
Why VfB Stuttgart at 59%?
VfB Stuttgart sit 199 points higher on our strength rating — 1775 to 1577. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,689 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Hamburger SV's column. Across 11,298 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 20–21–59.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Hamburger SV at 20%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 22.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 1.9 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
VfB Stuttgart have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Hamburger SV in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Out: Nicolai Remberg, a star player, and Patson Daka, on a provisional rating. Doubtful: Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart. Explore more on the Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart team pages or the Bundesliga page.