Match report
Gustavo's early strike gives Guimaraes narrow win over Nacional
Guimaraes edged out Nacional 1-0 in a Primeira Liga round three fixture, the only goal arriving inside the opening five minutes to settle a contest the hosts controlled for long spells thereafter.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Gustavo put Guimaraes ahead in the fourth minute, finishing off a Miguel Nogueira assist, and that early strike proved decisive as the scoreline stayed unchanged through the remaining 86 minutes. Nacional could not find a response despite the match being level on possession.
Guimaraes dominated the shot count, firing 18 attempts to Nacional's five and forcing five efforts on target compared to none from the visitors, yet only the early goal was needed. The hosts picked up two yellow cards to none for Nacional, whose discipline held firm as they chased an equaliser that never came.
Gustavo scored the only goal of the match in the fourth minute and finished with a rating of 7.6, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Guimaraes racked up 18 shots to Nacional's five, underlining their territorial dominance despite the tight scoreline.
Guimaraes beat Nacional 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Guimaraes met Nacional in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Sunday, 23 August 2026, 14:30 UTC at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Referee: Pedro Ramalho.
Team pages: Guimaraes · Nacional · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 4' Goal: Gustavo (assist: Miguel Nogueira) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Guimaraes (4-2-3-1)
- 48 Oliwier Zych
- 13 João Mendes
- 28 Thiago Balieiro
- 4 Óscar Rivas
- 23 Tony Strata
- 8 Gonçalo Nogueira
- 44 Lohann Doucet
- 11 Gustavo
- 20 Samu (c)
- 17 Miguel Nogueira
- 24 Alioune Ndoye
Nacional (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Renato Bellucci
- 38 Zé Vitor
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 34 Léo Santos (c)
- 7 Markus Jensen
- 22 Filipe Soares
- 28 Liziero
- 52 Wesley Gasolina
- 10 Daniel Júnior
- 8 Miguel Baeza
- 99 Pablo Ruan
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Guimaraes 54%, the draw 28%, Nacional 18%. It finished Guimaraes 1–0 Nacional.
Guimaraes' rating edge, but the draw is in play — Guimaraes are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Guimaraes' 54%. The draw at 28% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Guimaraes at 54%?
Guimaraes sit 168 points higher on our strength rating — 1672 to 1504. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,730 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 59–26–15.
Why only 54%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Guimaraes's column. Across 10,693 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Nacional win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,635. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Guimaraes average 6 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 168 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Nacional's last five: L-L-W-D-W — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2190 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 4003 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Guimaraes vs Nacional final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Guimaraes and Nacional team pages or the Primeira Liga page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Guimaraes beat Nacional 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
›Who scored in Guimaraes vs Nacional?
Gustavo (4') for Guimaraes.
›Where can I watch Guimaraes vs Nacional highlights?
This page carries the full match report, stats and lineups for Guimaraes vs Nacional; goal clips are added as soon as official highlights are available.
›What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Nacional?
Guimaraes and Nacional have met 10 times — 5 wins for Guimaraes, 3 wins for Nacional and 2 draws.