Match report
Estrela edge five-goal thriller away at Nacional
Nacional's 2-3 home defeat to Estrela in the Primeira Liga saw the visitors come from behind twice to claim the points in a Regular Season - 4 fixture. Wesley Gasolina put the hosts ahead inside three minutes, only for Ianis Stoica to level from the penalty spot right on the stroke of half-time, sending the sides in level at 1-1.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The second half brought further twists. Abraham Marcus restored Estrela's lead in the 62nd minute, finishing off an Eddy Doue assist, before Pablo Ruan hauled Nacional level again four minutes later with Liziero teeing him up. But Estrela had the final say when Leandro Antonetti, set up once more by Doue, struck in the 83rd minute to make it 2-3 and settle the contest.
Estrela's superior cutting edge was reflected in the underlying numbers despite Nacional enjoying more of the ball at 51% possession to 49%. The visitors had 14 shots to Nacional's 10 and produced an xG of 2.1 compared to the hosts' 0.83, underlining how clinically they converted their opportunities in Portugal.
Abraham Marcus scored Estrela's second goal of the afternoon and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.3.
Estrela's 2.1 expected goals figure against Nacional's 0.83 pointed to the visitors generating the more threatening chances despite having less of the ball.
Estrela won 3–2 away against Nacional (half-time 1–1).
Nacional met Estrela in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 30 August 2026, 14:30 UTC at Estádio da Madeira. Referee: Carlos Macedo.
Team pages: Nacional · Estrela · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 3' Goal: Wesley Gasolina (assist: Williams Kokolo) — 1–0 · Watch Wesley Gasolina's goal video (3')
- 45' Goal (penalty): Ianis Stoica — 1–1 · Watch Ianis Stoica's goal video (45')
- 62' Goal: Abraham Marcus (assist: Eddy Doue) — 1–2 · Watch Abraham Marcus's goal video (62')
- 66' Goal: Pablo Ruan (assist: Liziero) — 2–2 · Watch Pablo Ruan's goal video (66')
- 83' Goal: Leandro Antonetti (assist: Eddy Doue) — 2–3 · Watch Leandro Antonetti's goal video (83')
Starting line-ups
Nacional (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Renato Bellucci
- 38 Zé Vitor
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 34 Léo Santos (c)
- 21 Williams Kokolo
- 22 Filipe Soares
- 28 Liziero
- 52 Wesley Gasolina
- 10 Daniel Júnior
- 8 Miguel Baeza
- 99 Pablo Ruan
Estrela (4-3-3)
- 24 Léo Linck
- 55 Rafa Soares
- 5 Stefan Leković (c)
- 30 Luan Patrick
- 21 Max Scholze
- 8 Robinho
- 39 Eddy Doue
- 14 Lovro Zvonarek
- 10 Ianis Stoica
- 37 Leandro Antonetti
- 99 Abraham Marcus
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nacional 47%, the draw 29%, Estrela 24%. It finished Nacional 2–3 Estrela.
Level sides, Nacional's control of the ball swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Nacional's control of the ball gives Nacional the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Nacional in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1499 to 1483. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,515 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Nacional hold 7 more possession points (50 to 43 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 47.9% of 5,191 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 47%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Nacional's column. Across 10,823 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Estrela win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,699. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Last 4 between them: Nacional 1 win, 1 draw, Estrela 2 wins. Most recently Nacional 2–0 Estrela, 5 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.1% of 5601 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points. Nacional on 7 days' rest, Estrela on 15. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 43,569 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nacional vs Estrela final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Wesley Gasolina's goal against Estrela (3').
- Watch Ianis Stoica's goal against Nacional (45').
- Watch Abraham Marcus's goal against Nacional (62').
- Watch Pablo Ruan's goal against Estrela (66').
- Watch Leandro Antonetti's goal against Nacional (83').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nacional 2–3 Estrela. Explore more on the Nacional and Estrela team pages or the Primeira Liga page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Nacional vs Estrela?
Estrela won 3–2 away against Nacional (half-time 1–1).
›Who scored in Nacional vs Estrela?
Wesley Gasolina (3') for Nacional; Ianis Stoica (45') (penalty) for Estrela; Abraham Marcus (62') for Estrela; Pablo Ruan (66') for Nacional; Leandro Antonetti (83') for Estrela.
›Where can I watch Nacional vs Estrela highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Nacional 2–3 Estrela are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Estrela?
Nacional and Estrela have met 5 times — 1 win for Nacional, 3 wins for Estrela and 1 draw.