SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 22′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 46′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 66′SpVgg Greuther Fürth, substitution:off
- 72′SpVgg Greuther Fürth, substitution:off
- 72′SpVgg Greuther Fürth, substitution:off
- 73′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 79′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 85′SpVgg Greuther Fürth, substitution:off
- 85′SpVgg Greuther Fürth, substitution:off
- 87′SpVgg Greuther Fürth, goal:1–0assist
- 89′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Holstein Kiel
Match report
Keller's late strike gives Greuther Fürth win over Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 1-0 in the 2. Bundesliga on Matchday 10, Aaron Keller scoring the only goal of the afternoon in the 87th minute at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. The two sides were level at 0-0 at half-time and the match stayed tight until Fürth finally found a way through.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Kiel had the greater share of the ball, with 53% possession to Fürth's 47%, and they led the shot count 14 to 10, with four efforts on target against two. Fürth, though, won the corner count 9 to 5 and kept pressing for a breakthrough. Two Kiel players were booked, while Fürth collected no cards.
The decisive moment came three minutes from the end, when Dennis Srbeny set up Keller to settle it. The result lifted Fürth from 14th to ninth, on 12 points, while Kiel dropped from 16th to 17th on 8 points, leaving the sides eight places and four points apart. Fürth travel to Dynamo Dresden on Friday in the 2. Bundesliga, and Kiel host Arminia Bielefeld the following day.
Aaron Keller scored the only goal, in the 87th minute, from Dennis Srbeny's assist, and earned the match's highest rating of 7.72.
Kiel managed 14 shots to Fürth's 10 but could not turn that territorial edge into a goal.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth met Holstein Kiel in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 12:30 UTC at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Referee: Lars Erbst.
Team pages: SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 87' Goal: Aaron Keller (assist: Dennis Srbeny) — 1–0 · Watch Aaron Keller's goal video (87')
Starting line-ups
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (4-2-3-1)
Holstein Kiel (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, the draw 29%, Holstein Kiel 39%. It finished SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Holstein Kiel.
Holstein Kiel's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Holstein Kiel sit 91 points higher on our strength rating, 1430 to 1338, which is enough to make them slight favourites at 39% despite SpVgg Greuther Fürth getting the usual home advantage. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and rises to 29% because both sides' recent games average a typical 2.6 goals.
Why Holstein Kiel at 39%?
Holstein Kiel sit 91 points higher on our strength rating — 1430 to 1338. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,851 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–30–38.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,368. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 18 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 7 days' rest, Holstein Kiel on 3. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 45,041 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Holstein Kiel. Explore more on the SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.