Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg — 2. Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Hertha BSCVfL WolfsburgHertha BSCVfL WolfsburgMatch preview
Hertha BSC host VfL Wolfsburg with the 2. Bundesliga summit in view
Hertha BSC welcome VfL Wolfsburg to the Olympiastadion on Matchday 11 of the 2. Bundesliga, with the top of the table the backdrop. Stefan Leitl's side lead the division on 28 points from ten games, while Tobias Strobl's visitors sit third on 19, nine points adrift and two places lower.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Hertha arrive in strong shape. They have won their last three games, most recently a 3-0 victory at 1. FC Kaiserslautern, and are unbeaten in 12. In their last five games they have won four and drawn one, conceding a single goal and keeping four clean sheets.
Wolfsburg's recent results are more mixed. They beat VfL Osnabrück 2-0 last time out, but before that came a 3-2 defeat at SC Freiburg and a 1-1 draw at VfL Bochum. Away from home, Wolfsburg have won one of their last five, drawing two and losing two, and conceded 11 goals in those games. Hertha have won all five of their latest home matches.
Across their last 5 meetings, Hertha BSC won 1, VfL Wolfsburg won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Hertha BSC on 27 May 2023. VfL Wolfsburg's latest win in this sample was Hertha BSC 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg on 24 January 2023.
Hertha have won four and drawn one of their last five games, conceding once, whereas Wolfsburg have won two, drawn two and lost one while shipping nine goals.
Hertha's five home wins in their last five at the Olympiastadion meet a Wolfsburg side that has conceded 11 goals in its last five away games.
Hertha BSC meet VfL Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 19:30 UTC at Olympiastadion Berlin. Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck.
Team pages: Hertha BSC · VfL Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Hertha BSC 46% · Draw 23% · VfL Wolfsburg 31%
Home advantage edges a level contest for Hertha — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1565 to 1569, Hertha BSC's usual home advantage puts them in front, helped by Wolfsburg's recent scoring beyond their chances, a streak that tends to cool. The draw starts near 27% and falls to 23%, lowered by high-scoring recent games and that finishing streak.
Why Hertha BSC in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1565 to 1569. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). VfL Wolfsburg scored +0.57 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 23% and VfL Wolfsburg at 31%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Hertha BSC have gained 81 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in their last 6 visits to Hertha BSC: 4 wins and 2 draws, across 6 Bundesliga games. Last recorded defeat there: 22 April 2017 — Hertha BSC 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg. Latest visit: 24 January 2023 — Hertha BSC 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg. Across 2,308 historical matches involving visitors unbeaten in at least five consecutive visits, those visitors won 47.3%, compared with 45.2% expected from the teams' strength ratings. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.