1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
1. FC MagdeburgFC St. Pauli1. FC MagdeburgFC St. PauliMatch preview
Magdeburg host St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga matchday 11 clash
1. FC Magdeburg welcome FC St. Pauli to the Avnet Arena for matchday 11 of the 2. Bundesliga. The hosts sit fifth with 17 points from ten games, while the visitors are eighth on 12, five points behind and three places lower.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Magdeburg arrive after a 1-1 draw at SV Darmstadt 98 on 31 October, preceded by a 6-1 defeat at Bayern München. Before that came a 6-1 home win over Karlsruher SC. Across their last five they have scored 11 goals and conceded ten, winning two, drawing one and losing two.
St. Pauli, managed by Marcel Rapp, come off a 3-1 home defeat to 1. FC Nürnberg on 1 November. That was their first loss in five, a run that also holds a win over Karlsruher SC and three draws, two of them away at Hannover 96 and Darmstadt. They have kept two clean sheets in those five games.
Across their last 5 meetings, 1. FC Magdeburg won 1, FC St. Pauli won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 FC St. Pauli on 10 February 2024. FC St. Pauli's latest win in this sample was 1. FC Magdeburg 1–2 FC St. Pauli on 18 February 2023.
Magdeburg have won two of their last five and lost two, while St. Pauli have won one, drawn three and lost one.
Magdeburg have won four of their last five home games, while St. Pauli have drawn four of their last five away from home.
1. FC Magdeburg meet FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 12:30 UTC at Avnet Arena. Referee: Tom Bauer.
Team pages: 1. FC Magdeburg · FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
1. FC Magdeburg 41% · Draw 27% · FC St. Pauli 32%
Home advantage gives Magdeburg a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1472 to 1449, the usual home advantage puts Magdeburg in front at 41%, while St. Pauli's recent finishing, below what their chances deserved, pulls back towards them because cold streaks like this have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual rate for sides this level, with small finishing and scoring nudges largely cancelling out.
Why 1. FC Magdeburg in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1472 to 1449. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 41%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. FC St. Pauli sit -0.45 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,696 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why the draw at 27%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
1. FC Magdeburg scored +0.89 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. 1. FC Magdeburg have gained 66 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.