Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther FürthDynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther FürthMatch preview
Dynamo Dresden host SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga matchday 11
Dynamo Dresden welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to the Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion on matchday 11 of the 2. Bundesliga, with the hosts down in 18th place on 8 points from 10 games. Thomas Stamm's side arrive after a 2-1 defeat at Hannover 96 on 1 November.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Fürth, managed by Heiko Vogel, sit ninth on 12 points, four clear of Dresden and nine places higher. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 home win over Holstein Kiel, which followed a 3-0 loss at VfL Osnabrück a week earlier.
Dresden's home record is the more encouraging side of their season: in their last five home games they have won three, lost two and kept three clean sheets. Fürth's last five away games brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with 10 goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Dynamo Dresden won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Dynamo Dresden 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 17 January 2026. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's latest win in this sample was SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–2 Dynamo Dresden on 3 August 2025.
Both sides have won two and lost two of their last five, though Dresden have drawn one and scored six goals to Fürth's five.
Both sides have faced Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück recently, with Dresden losing 3-0 at Kiel and Fürth losing 3-0 at Osnabrück.
Dynamo Dresden meet SpVgg Greuther Fürth in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion. Referee: Michael Bacher.
Team pages: Dynamo Dresden · SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2. Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Dynamo Dresden 52% · Draw 24% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%
Dresden's stronger rating gives them the edge — We give Dynamo Dresden 52% mainly because they sit 50 points higher on our strength rating, 1400 to 1350, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw starts near 27%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 24% because both sides' own recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Dynamo Dresden at 52%?
Dynamo Dresden sit 50 points higher on our strength rating — 1400 to 1350. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 19 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Dynamo Dresden. The record is 3 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2 draws and 1 win for Dynamo Dresden. These were 6 2. Bundesliga games played at both grounds between 30 September 2018 and 17 January 2026. Latest meeting: 17 January 2026 — Dynamo Dresden 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth. SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead the 6-match record, although Dynamo Dresden won the latest encounter. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.