Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Holstein KielArminia BielefeldHolstein KielArminia BielefeldMatch preview
Holstein Kiel host Arminia Bielefeld on 2. Bundesliga Matchday 11
Holstein Kiel welcome Arminia Bielefeld to the Holstein-Stadion on Matchday 11 of the 2. Bundesliga, with Tim Walter's side 17th on eight points from ten games. Bielefeld, managed by Oliver Kirch, sit seventh on 14 points, six clear of their hosts and ten places higher in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Kiel arrive off a 1-0 defeat at SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1 November. In their last five they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring four goals and failing to score in three of those games. Defensively they have been tighter, with two clean sheets and three goals conceded.
Bielefeld's most recent outing was a 3-1 home win over Eintracht Braunschweig. They have won three of their last five, drawn one and lost one, scoring eight and conceding five. Their away record is the weaker side of their season: one win in their last five away games, with nine goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Holstein Kiel won 0, Arminia Bielefeld won 4, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Holstein Kiel on 23 January 2026. Arminia Bielefeld's latest win in this sample was Holstein Kiel 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld on 10 August 2025.
Bielefeld have taken three wins from their last five games, while Kiel have managed one win, two draws and two defeats in theirs.
Kiel have not lost in their last five home games, though four of them ended in draws, while Bielefeld have lost three of their last five away.
Holstein Kiel meet Arminia Bielefeld in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 12:00 UTC at Holstein-Stadion. Referee: Wolfgang Haslberger.
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Arminia Bielefeld · 2. Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Holstein Kiel 49% · Draw 25% · Arminia Bielefeld 26%
Holstein Kiel's control of the ball gives a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Holstein Kiel's habit of holding the ball, 52% possession to 44% in recent games, is the main reason we give them 49%, though Arminia Bielefeld's marginally higher rating pulls slightly the other way. The draw starts from the usual 27% for sides this level and drops to 25%, mainly because Bielefeld's finishing streak tends to cool off.
Why Holstein Kiel in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1418 to 1427. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Holstein Kiel hold 8 more possession points (52 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.5% of 5,647 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level. Arminia Bielefeld scored +0.31 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 49%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 25% and Arminia Bielefeld at 26%.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Holstein Kiel sit -0.42 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Holstein Kiel are unbeaten in their 5 home 2. Bundesliga games this season: 1 win and 4 draws. Season's home results covered: 14 August 2026 to 25 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 25 October 2026 — Holstein Kiel 3–0 Dynamo Dresden. Across 5,319 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.4%, compared with 56.3% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.