1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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1. FC Nürnberg
SV Darmstadt 981. FC NürnbergSV Darmstadt 98Match preview
1. FC Nürnberg host SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga matchday 11
Second-placed 1. FC Nürnberg welcome 16th-placed SV Darmstadt 98 to the Max-Morlock-Stadion on matchday 11 of the 2. Bundesliga. Miroslav Klose's side have 21 points from ten games, 12 more than Florian Kohfeldt's visitors, and the table puts 14 places between the teams.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Nürnberg arrive on the back of a 3-1 win at FC St. Pauli, though that followed a 0-1 home loss to 1. FC Kaiserslautern and a 5-2 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen. Before that they had drawn 4-4 with VfL Wolfsburg and 1-1 at Energie Cottbus. Their last five league and cup outings have produced one win, two draws and two defeats.
Darmstadt come into the game after a 1-1 draw at home to 1. FC Magdeburg, their latest result in a run that also includes a 0-0 draw with St. Pauli and a 2-0 win at SV Elversberg. They lost 4-0 at Karlsruher SC earlier in the month, and have conceded 13 goals in their last five away games.
Across their last 5 meetings, 1. FC Nürnberg won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 1. FC Nürnberg on 23 January 2026. 1. FC Nürnberg's latest win in this sample was 1. FC Nürnberg 1–0 SV Darmstadt 98 on 31 January 2025.
Nürnberg have won one of their last five, drawing two and losing two, while Darmstadt have won two, drawn two and lost one over the same span.
Both sides have faced FC St. Pauli and Energie Cottbus recently: Nürnberg won 3-1 at St. Pauli and drew 1-1 at Cottbus, while Darmstadt drew 0-0 with St. Pauli at home and beat Cottbus 3-1.
1. FC Nürnberg meet SV Darmstadt 98 in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 12:00 UTC at Max-Morlock-Stadion. Referee: Eric-Dominic Weisbach.
Team pages: 1. FC Nürnberg · SV Darmstadt 98 · 2. Bundesliga
Sirius · Why these numbers
1. FC Nürnberg 61% · Draw 23% · SV Darmstadt 98 16%
Nürnberg's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give Nürnberg 61% mainly because they sit 90 points higher on our strength rating, 1502 to 1412, and their habit of controlling the ball, 56% possession to 41% in recent games, adds to it. The draw starts at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 23% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why 1. FC Nürnberg at 61%?
1. FC Nürnberg sit 90 points higher on our strength rating — 1502 to 1412. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. 1. FC Nürnberg hold 15 more possession points (56 to 41 in recent games) across a 90-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. The 300 most similar past games finished 55–25–20.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and SV Darmstadt 98 at 16%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
1. FC Nürnberg scored +0.80 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. In our recorded league results, SV Darmstadt 98 are winless in their last 15 away games: 7 draws and 8 defeats. The run began on 30 November 2025. Last recorded away league win: 8 November 2025 — Hannover 96 2–3 SV Darmstadt 98. Latest recorded away league result: 18 October 2026 — Karlsruher SC 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98. Across 14,301 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 24.5%, compared with 24.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this 2. Bundesliga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.