Match Events
- 54′Catanzaro, yellow card:Foul
- 58′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 59′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 60′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 71′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 72′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 77′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 77′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 82′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 83′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 86′Sudtirol, goal:1–0assist
- 87′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 89′Sudtirol, goal:2–0assist
- 89′Sudtirol, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time2 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
Sudtirol
Catanzaro
Match report
Late double sends Sudtirol top as Catanzaro fall to defeat
Sudtirol claimed a 2-0 win over Catanzaro in Serie B's third round, a result that kept them unbeaten and top of the table at Stadio Marco Druso. The match remained goalless at half-time before two late strikes settled the contest in the closing stages.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 86th minute when Rareş Burnete converted an assist from Fabio Rispoli to put Sudtirol ahead. Three minutes later Kenny Mixtur added a second, teed up by Kevin Zeroli, and Catanzaro were left with no way back as the final whistle approached.
Catanzaro had more of the ball, with 56 per cent possession and 12 shots to Sudtirol's nine, but only two of those attempts tested the goalkeeper compared with four from the hosts. That efficiency in front of goal proved decisive as Sudtirol made their late chances count.
The victory extended Sudtirol's unbeaten start to three matches and left them on seven points at the summit, while Catanzaro remain without a win and sit second from bottom after three games.
Fabio Rispoli set up the opening goal and was rated the top performer on the pitch with a 7.7 mark, playing a decisive hand in breaking the deadlock.
Despite having less of the ball, Sudtirol were the sharper side in front of goal, landing four shots on target to Catanzaro's two.
Sudtirol beat Catanzaro 2–0 (half-time 0–0).
Sudtirol met Catanzaro in the Serie B (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 5 September 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio Druso. Referee: E. Manedo Mazzoni.
Key moments
- 86' Goal: Rareş Burnete (assist: Fabio Rispoli) — 1–0
- 89' Goal: Kenny Mixtur (assist: Kevin Zeroli) — 2–0
Starting line-ups
Sudtirol (5-4-1)
Catanzaro (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sudtirol 28%, the draw 37%, Catanzaro 35%. It finished Sudtirol 2–0 Catanzaro.
Catanzaro's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Catanzaro are the stronger side on our strength rating, and a weak Serie B home advantage plus their control of the ball on top give Catanzaro the lean. The draw at 37% is the likeliest single result, helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Catanzaro at 35%?
Catanzaro sit 138 points higher on our strength rating — 1394 to 1532. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,132 such games. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,032 games vs 44.9% across all 99,727 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Catanzaro hold 11 more possession points (56 to 45 in recent games) across a 138-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,650 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 36–26–38.
Why only 35%?
Sudtirol sit -0.52 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.9% of 2,413 such games where the class table expected 36.3%.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,965. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.3 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Catanzaro scored +0.49 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,827 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sudtirol vs Catanzaro final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Sudtirol and Catanzaro team pages or the Serie B page.