Match report
Vavassori double sends Palermo top as Padova finish with ten men
Palermo came from behind to beat Padova 2-1 in Serie B on matchday five, a result that kept F. Inzaghi's side top of the table at the Renzo Barbera. Padova had led at half-time, but two second-half moments turned the contest before a late red card compounded the visitors' misery.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Christian Pastina put Padova ahead after just seven minutes, finishing an assist from Matteo Cocchi. Palermo levelled in first-half stoppage time when Dominic Vavassori converted a Dennis Johnsen assist to make it 1-1 at the break. The home side then edged in front in the 83rd minute as Vavassori struck again, once more teed up by Johnsen, to complete his double and put Palermo 2-1 up.
Padova's afternoon worsened deep into stoppage time when Lorenzo Carissoni was sent off in the 90th minute, leaving the away side to finish the match a man light. Palermo held on from there to secure the win and stretch their unbeaten home form, while Padova slipped to a fourth match without victory in their recent run heading into this fixture.
Dominic Vavassori scored twice, including the decisive 83rd-minute winner, and finished with a rating of 8.87 to lead all performers on the pitch.
Palermo edged general territorial control with 53% of possession as they worked their way back from behind.
Palermo beat Padova 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Palermo met Padova in the Serie B (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC at Renzo Barbera. Referee: Marco Di Bello.
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Christian Pastina (assist: Matteo Cocchi) — 0–1
- 44' Goal: Dominic Vavassori (assist: Dennis Johnsen) — 1–1
- 83' Goal: Dominic Vavassori (assist: Dennis Johnsen) — 2–1
- 90+1' Red card: Lorenzo Carissoni
Starting line-ups
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
Padova (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palermo 60%, the draw 31%, Padova 9%. It finished Palermo 2–1 Padova.
Palermo's rating gap, but the draw is in play — Palermo are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Palermo's 60%. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Palermo at 60%?
Palermo sit 254 points higher on our strength rating — 1651 to 1397. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.1% of 6,004 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 66–20–14.
Why only 60%?
Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,053 games vs 44.9% across all 100,303 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Palermo's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Padova win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,851. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.4 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palermo are unbeaten in their last 16 home Serie B games: 15 wins and 1 draw. The run began on 1 November 2025. Last recorded home league defeat: 28 October 2025 — Palermo 0–3 Monza. Latest home league result: 7 September 2026 — Palermo 3–1 Sampdoria. Across 13,631 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.3%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. Padova have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palermo vs Padova final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palermo 2–1 Padova. Explore more on the Palermo and Padova team pages or the Serie B page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Palermo vs Padova?
Palermo beat Padova 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
›Who scored in Palermo vs Padova?
Christian Pastina (7') for Padova; Dominic Vavassori (44') for Palermo; Dominic Vavassori (83') for Palermo.
›Where can I watch Palermo vs Padova highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Palermo 2–1 Padova are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Padova?
Palermo and Padova have met 4 times — 3 wins for Palermo, 0 wins for Padova and 1 draw.