HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 1′Carrarese, goal:1–0assist
- 25′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- 28′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 51′Carrarese, yellow card:Time wasting
- 52′Carrarese, goal:2–0assist
- 56′Modena, substitution:off
- 56′Modena, substitution:off
- 56′Modena, substitution:off
- 61′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 71′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 76′Modena, goal:2–1assist
- 81′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 81′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 85′Modena, substitution:off
- 88′Carrarese, red card:Guido PagliucaAbusive language
- 90′Modena, yellow card:Foul
- 90+1′Modena, yellow card:Foul
- 90+4′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time2 – 1
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Carrarese
Modena
Match report
Carrarese hold off Modena to win 2-1 at Stadio dei Marmi
Carrarese beat Modena 2-1 in Serie B on Matchday 7 at Stadio dei Marmi, moving from 18th to 12th in the table and ending a run of three defeats in their previous four league games. Fabio Abiuso opened the scoring after only a minute, set up by Gabriele Parlanti, and the hosts led 1-0 at half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Tommaso Rubino doubled the advantage in the 52nd minute from an Abiuso assist, and Modena, who had begun the day third, were left chasing the game. They pulled one back in the 76th minute when Andrea Belotti scored from a Giacomo Olzer pass, and the visitors pushed hard through the closing stages.
Their task grew no easier when Carrarese had Guido Pagliuca sent off in the 88th minute, leaving the hosts with ten men for the remainder, but they held on. Modena had 58% of possession against 42% and won eight corners to two, yet it was not enough to find an equaliser.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Carrarese a 28% chance of winning. Carrarese travel to Palermo in Serie B on Sunday, while Modena host Cesena in the same competition on Saturday.
Rubino scored the second goal and earned the highest rating of any player in the match, 8.2. Abiuso, rated 7.91, scored the opener and provided the assist for Rubino's goal.
Modena won eight corners to two for Carrarese, a reflection of the pressure they applied despite the defeat.
Carrarese beat Modena 2–1 (half-time 1–0).
Carrarese met Modena in the Serie B (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio dei Marmi. Referee: Federico La Penna.
Key moments
- 1' Goal: Fabio Abiuso (assist: Gabriele Parlanti) — 1–0
- 52' Goal: Tommaso Rubino (assist: Fabio Abiuso) — 2–0
- 76' Goal: Andrea Belotti (assist: Giacomo Olzer) — 2–1
- 88' Red card: Guido Pagliuca
Starting line-ups
Carrarese (3-5-2)
Modena (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Carrarese 28%, the draw 38%, Modena 34%. It finished Carrarese 2–1 Modena.
Modena's stronger rating gives a slight lean, draw likeliest — Modena sit 107 points higher on our strength rating, which puts them slightly in front at 34% to Carrarese's 28%, and weak home advantage across Serie B adds to that. The draw is the likeliest single result at 38%, up from a 28% starting point because Serie B sees plenty of draws and both sides' recent games have been low-scoring.
Why Modena at 34%?
Modena sit 107 points higher on our strength rating — 1443 to 1336. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,846 such games. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (26.0% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,073 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Modena hold 9 more possession points (52 to 43 in recent games) across a 107-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,639 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 38–30–32.
Why only 34%?
Carrarese sit -0.38 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,529 such games where the class table expected 35.9%.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,744. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment adds 3.9 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Carrarese come into this after a busy window — 16 arrivals and 19 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Carrarese are 1 game into a new manager (G. Pagliuca), appointed 5 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Carrarese vs Modena final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Carrarese 2–1 Modena. Explore more on the Carrarese and Modena team pages or the Serie B page.