HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 21′Palermo, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 55′Mantova, substitution:off
- 62′Palermo, goal:0–1
- 66′Palermo, substitution:off
- 74′Mantova, substitution:off
- 74′Mantova, substitution:off
- 77′Palermo, substitution:off
- 77′Palermo, substitution:off
- 84′Mantova, substitution:off
- 84′Palermo, substitution:off
- 84′Palermo, substitution:off
- 86′Palermo, goal:0–2assist
- Full-time0 – 2
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Mantova
Palermo
Match report
Palermo beat Mantova 2-0 to extend Serie B lead
Palermo won 2-0 at Mantova's Stadio Danilo Martelli on Matchday 7 of Serie B, scoring twice in the second half to go five points clear at the top. The visitors had been only two points ahead of second-placed Mantova before kick-off, and the result opened a five-point gap between the sides.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half passed without a goal, Mantova holding 56% of the possession in a contest of few clear openings. The breakthrough arrived in the 62nd minute, when Jacopo Segre put Palermo in front, and the visitors protected that lead for the best part of half an hour.
Mantova could not find a way back, and Palermo sealed the points in the 86th minute. Hernani scored from a Dominic Vavassori assist to make it 2-0. Mantova suffered their first league defeat of the season, ending a run of six league games unbeaten, while Palermo are now unbeaten in 10 games.
Mantova travel to Virtus Entella in Serie B on Saturday 24 October, while Palermo host Carrarese the following day.
Jacopo Segre scored the opening goal in the 62nd minute and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.2. Dominic Vavassori followed with an assist for Hernani's late second, rated 8.0.
Mantova had more of the ball with 56% possession, yet Palermo managed five shots on target to their four.
Palermo won 2–0 away against Mantova (half-time 0–0).
Mantova met Palermo in the Serie B (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 15:15 UTC at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Referee: Luca Zufferli.
Key moments
- 62' Goal: Jacopo Segre — 0–1
- 86' Goal: Hernani (assist: Dominic Vavassori) — 0–2
Starting line-ups
Mantova (3-4-2-1)
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Mantova 31%, the draw 32%, Palermo 37%. It finished Mantova 0–2 Palermo.
Palermo's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — Palermo sit 119 points higher on our strength rating, 1571 to 1451, and home sides in Serie B tend to under-perform, so we give them 37% to Mantova's 31%. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, rises 7 points for Serie B's high draw rate and drops 3 because both teams' recent games average 3.6 goals, leaving it at 32%.
Why Palermo at 37%?
Palermo sit 119 points higher on our strength rating — 1571 to 1451. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,846 such games. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (26.0% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,073 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–28–42.
Why only 37%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 37% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 32% and Mantova at 31%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Mantova win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment takes 3.0 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Mantova scored +0.50 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,843 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Mantova have gained 71 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,205 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Mantova vs Palermo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Mantova 0–2 Palermo. Explore more on the Mantova and Palermo team pages or the Serie B page.