FC Lugano vs 15.10.26 16:453 – 2Full Time
FK Crvena Zvezda — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Lugano score twice late to beat Crvena Zvezda 3-2
FC Lugano came from behind to beat FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2 at the AIL Arena on matchday 1 of the UEFA Europa Conference League league stage. The hosts trailed with 23 minutes left but scored twice in the last six to take the points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Albian Ajeti put Lugano ahead in the 25th minute, converting a chance created by Renato Steffen. The lead lasted only seven minutes, as Timi Elšnik levelled in the 32nd minute from Matej Gashtarov's assist, and the sides went in at 1-1.
Crvena Zvezda went in front in the 67th minute when Rade Krunić scored from Muhammed Cham's pass, and the visitors held that lead until the 84th minute. Dereck Moncada then equalised, set up by Yanis Cimignani, and Anto Grgić struck a penalty in the 89th minute to complete the turnaround.
Lugano did it with less of the ball, as Crvena Zvezda had 60 per cent of possession and 18 shots to the hosts' 15. Lugano travel to Getafe on Thursday 22 October, while Crvena Zvezda host FC Copenhagen on the same day, both in the Europa Conference League.
Rade Krunić scored Crvena Zvezda's second goal and earned the match's highest rating, 8.0, though he finished on the losing side. Albian Ajeti, who scored Lugano's opener, was rated 7.3.
Crvena Zvezda had 60 per cent of possession but lost, with Lugano taking the points on a late burst of two goals in six minutes.
FC Lugano beat FK Crvena Zvezda 3–2 (half-time 1–1).
FC Lugano met FK Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Europa Conference League (League Stage - 1). Kick-off was Thursday, 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC at AIL Arena. Referee: Florian Badstubner.
Team pages: FC Lugano · FK Crvena Zvezda · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 25' Goal: Albian Ajeti (assist: Renato Steffen) — 1–0
- 32' Goal: Timi Elšnik (assist: Matej Gashtarov) — 1–1
- 67' Goal: Rade Krunić (assist: Muhammed Cham) — 1–2
- 84' Goal: Dereck Moncada (assist: Yanis Cimignani) — 2–2
- 89' Goal (penalty): Anto Grgić — 3–2 · Watch Anto Grgić's goal video (89')
Starting line-ups
FC Lugano (3-4-2-1)
FK Crvena Zvezda (5-4-1)
- 1 Matheus
- 23 Mihailo Ristić
- 3 Yūta Nakayama
- 45 Stefan Gudelj
- 60 Matej Gashtarov
- 37 Vladimir Lučić
- 22 Vasilije Kostov
- 20 Tomás Händel
- 33 Rade Krunić (c)
- 21 Timi Elšnik
- 9 Bamba Dieng
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Lugano 31%, the draw 26%, FK Crvena Zvezda 43%. It finished FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
Crvena Zvezda's higher rating gives them a slight lean — FK Crvena Zvezda sit 133 points higher on our strength rating, 1603 to 1470, and their recent finishing below their chances adds a little, as cold streaks like this tend to bounce back. The draw starts at the usual 28% for a gap this size and edges down to 26%, mainly because of that finishing streak.
Why FK Crvena Zvezda at 43%?
FK Crvena Zvezda sit 133 points higher on our strength rating — 1603 to 1470. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,839 such games. FK Crvena Zvezda sit -0.51 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,527 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–25–42.
Why only 43%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 43% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and FC Lugano at 31%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,180. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Lugano have averaged 10 percentage points more possession than FK Crvena Zvezda in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. FC Lugano's last five in the competitions we cover: W-W-D-W-D — the hotter side across the games we track. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.4% of 1902 games when clearly hotter and 43.7% of 3649 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda. Explore more on the FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.