CSKA Sofia vs 15.10.26 16:451 – 2Full Time
Monaco — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Monaco win at CSKA Sofia as early goals prove decisive
Monaco won 2-1 away to CSKA Sofia at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in the opening matchday of the Europa Conference League league stage. The visitors had the match largely settled by half-time, scoring twice before the interval, and held on after a late home goal set up a tense finish.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Paris Josua Brunner opened the scoring in the third minute, finishing from Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo's pass. Monaco doubled their lead two minutes before the break when Ansu Fati scored from Brunner's assist, making it 2-0 at half-time.
CSKA Sofia pressed for a way back after the restart and were rewarded in the 76th minute, when Joël Zwarts scored from Stefano Sensi's assist to make it 1-2. The hosts could not find an equaliser, and the result left them with four defeats in a row, while Monaco are now unbeaten in nine games.
Monaco turn to Ligue 1 next, away to Lorient on Sunday, while CSKA Sofia travel to FC Nordsjaelland in the Europa Conference League on Thursday.
Ansu Fati scored Monaco's second goal just before half-time and earned the match's highest rating, 8.2. Paris Josua Brunner scored the opener and set up Fati's goal, finishing on 7.6.
CSKA Sofia won the corner count 10 to 1 but still finished on the losing side.
Monaco won 2–1 away against CSKA Sofia (half-time 0–2).
CSKA Sofia met Monaco in the UEFA Europa Conference League (League Stage - 1). Kick-off was Thursday, 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC at National Stadium Vasil Levski. Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves.
Team pages: CSKA Sofia · Monaco · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 3' Goal: Paris Josua Brunner (assist: Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo) — 0–1
- 43' Goal: Ansu Fati (assist: Paris Josua Brunner) — 0–2 · Watch Ansu Fati's goal video (43')
- 76' Goal: Joël Zwarts (assist: Stefano Sensi) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
CSKA Sofia (4-1-4-1)
Monaco (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave CSKA Sofia 12%, the draw 18%, Monaco 70%. It finished CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco.
Monaco's strength rating gap makes this one-sided — We give Monaco 70% because our strength rating has them 377 points higher, 1789 to 1412, which easily outweighs the usual home advantage CSKA Sofia start with. The draw sits at 18%, right at the usual draw rate for a strength gap this size, with nothing listed moving it either way.
Why Monaco at 70%?
Monaco sit 377 points higher on our strength rating — 1789 to 1412. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 5,868 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 11–18–71.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 70% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and CSKA Sofia at 12%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,180.
What did we measure but not count?
CSKA Sofia have shed 62 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,601 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Monaco's last five: W-W-D-W-D — the hotter side across the games we track, and unbeaten in their last 8 on 90-minute results, all competitions (6 wins, 2 draws), a run going back to August 2026. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.4% of 1902 games when clearly hotter and 43.7% of 3649 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the CSKA Sofia vs Monaco final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco. Explore more on the CSKA Sofia and Monaco team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.