Luxembourg vs 29.09.26 18:450 – 3Full Time
Iceland — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Iceland overwhelm Luxembourg to move top of Group 4
Iceland beat Luxembourg 3-0 at the Stade de Luxembourg in a UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 fixture, moving to the summit of the table after their second matchday outing. The result continued the visitors' improved run against a Luxembourg side that had arrived on a run of wins.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Andri Guðjohnsen put Iceland ahead after 13 minutes, finishing off an assist from Orri Óskarsson, and the pair combined again before the break when Óskarsson turned scorer and Guðjohnsen provided the return assist, sending Iceland in 2-0 up at half-time. Victor Pálsson added a third in the 73rd minute, converting a chance created by Gylfi Sigurðsson to complete the scoring.
Despite Luxembourg holding 60 percent of possession, Iceland were far the more direct and clinical side, registering 13 shots to the hosts' five and putting four on target compared with Luxembourg's one. The three-goal margin left Luxembourg second in the group standings, while Iceland's win lifted them to first with four points from two matches.
Andri Guðjohnsen scored the opener and teed up Orri Óskarsson's second, earning the night's top rating of 9.0 among the listed performers.
Iceland's 13 shots to Luxembourg's five underlined how much more direct the visitors were in front of goal despite having less of the ball.
Iceland won 3–0 away against Luxembourg (half-time 0–2).
Luxembourg met Iceland in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 2). Kick-off was Tuesday, 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade de Luxembourg. Referee: Enea Jorgji.
Team pages: Luxembourg · Iceland · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 13' Goal: Andri Guðjohnsen (assist: Orri Óskarsson) — 0–1 · Watch Andri Guðjohnsen's goal video (13')
- 39' Goal: Orri Óskarsson (assist: Andri Guðjohnsen) — 0–2 · Watch Orri Óskarsson's goal video (39')
- 73' Goal: Victor Pálsson (assist: Gylfi Sigurðsson) — 0–3 · Watch Victor Pálsson's goal video (73')
Starting line-ups
Luxembourg (4-1-4-1)
Iceland (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Luxembourg 38%, the draw 27%, Iceland 35%. It finished Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland.
Home ground outweighs Iceland's rating edge — Iceland are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground plus Iceland's hot finishing due to cool give Luxembourg the lean. The draw at 27% is nudged down by the same factors that shape the win chances.
Why Luxembourg at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. Iceland sit 41 points higher on our strength rating — 1482 to 1523. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,284 such games. Iceland scored +0.78 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 26.9% of 1,428 games, vs 27.7% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 38%?
Because Iceland are the stronger side on our strength rating. Iceland hold 10 more possession points (54 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.0% across 5,457 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 25,157. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Luxembourg sit -0.39 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Luxembourg (7 fully-tracked matches with us) and Iceland (7) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Luxembourg vs Iceland final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Andri Guðjohnsen's goal against Luxembourg (13').
- Watch Orri Óskarsson's goal against Luxembourg (39').
- Watch Victor Pálsson's goal against Luxembourg (73').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland. Explore more on the Luxembourg and Iceland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.