Match report
Germany overwhelm Serbia to climb UEFA Nations League table
Germany beat Serbia 2-0 at the Allianz Arena in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture, matchday three of the competition. Tom Bischof opened the scoring in the 39th minute to send the hosts in 1-0 up at half-time, and the lead held firm for the remainder of the first period.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Germany doubled their advantage in the 61st minute when Florian Wirtz converted, assisted by Maximilian Mittelstädt, to make it 2-0, a scoreline that stood until the final whistle. Serbia were unable to find a response as the match wore on, with the hosts controlling proceedings throughout. The result lifted Germany to third in the League A Group 2 table on four points from three games, while Serbia remained fourth without a point from their three matches.
Bischof scored the opening goal and earned a rating of 8.2, matching the mark given to Wirtz, who netted Germany's second after being set up by Mittelstädt.
Germany dominated possession with 74% of the ball compared to Serbia's 26%.
Germany beat Serbia 2–0 (half-time 1–0).
Germany met Serbia in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 3). Kick-off was Thursday, 1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Allianz Arena. Referee: Espen Eskas.
Team pages: Germany · Serbia · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 39' Goal: Tom Bischof — 1–0 · Watch Tom Bischof's goal video (39')
- 61' Goal: Florian Wirtz (assist: Maximilian Mittelstädt) — 2–0 · Watch Florian Wirtz's goal video (61')
Starting line-ups
Germany (4-4-2)
Serbia (5-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Germany 71%, the draw 16%, Serbia 13%. It finished Germany 2–0 Serbia.
Germany's rating gap decides it — Germany are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Germany's 71%. The draw at 16% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Germany at 71%?
Germany sit 211 points higher on our strength rating — 1915 to 1703. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,606 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–16–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 71% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 16% and Serbia at 13%.
Why is the draw only 16%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,079.
What did we measure but not count?
Germany have averaged 16 percentage points more possession than Serbia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Serbia have shed 88 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.0% of 9,537 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Germany vs Serbia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Germany 2–0 Serbia. Explore more on the Germany and Serbia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.