Ukraine vs 02.10.26 18:450 – 3Full Time
Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Northern Ireland stun Ukraine 3-0 to top League B group
Northern Ireland claimed a thoroughly unexpected 3-0 win over Ukraine in a UEFA Nations League League B, Group 2 fixture played at Štadión Antona Malatinského. The result lifted the visitors to the top of the group on seven points from three matches, with Serhii Rebrov's side slipping to second place despite enjoying the vast majority of the ball.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Ciaron Brown put the away side ahead after just nine minutes, and Isaac Price doubled the lead on 22 minutes with an assist from Kieran Morrison, sending Northern Ireland in at half-time two goals to the good. Brown added his second and the match's third goal in the 61st minute, finishing off a move set up by Pierce Charles to settle any lingering doubt about the outcome.
Ukraine dominated territory with 73 per cent possession and won seven corners to one, yet could not turn that control into clear-cut chances, managing only two shots on target from eleven attempts. Northern Ireland made their limited opportunities count, converting three of their ten shots, while Jasper Vergoote issued three yellow cards to the home side as their frustration grew.
Ciaron Brown scored twice, including the match-opener and a late third, to finish with a rating of 8.03 and underline his influence on the result.
Ukraine held 73 per cent of possession but were unable to convert that dominance into a positive scoreline.
Northern Ireland won 3–0 away against Ukraine (half-time 0–2).
Ukraine met Northern Ireland in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Štadión Antona Malatinského. Referee: Jasper Vergoote.
Team pages: Ukraine · Northern Ireland · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 9' Goal: Ciaron Brown — 0–1 · Watch Ciaron Brown's goal video (9')
- 22' Goal: Isaac Price (assist: Kieran Morrison) — 0–2 · Watch Isaac Price's goal video (22')
- 61' Goal: Ciaron Brown (assist: Pierce Charles) — 0–3
Starting line-ups
Ukraine (4-2-3-1)
Northern Ireland (5-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Ukraine 70%, the draw 19%, Northern Ireland 11%. It finished Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland.
Ukraine's rating gap decides it — Ukraine are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Ukraine's 70%. The draw at 19% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Ukraine at 70%?
Ukraine sit 214 points higher on our strength rating — 1787 to 1573. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,607 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–16–11.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 70% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and Northern Ireland at 11%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,716. The goals environment adds 1.9 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Ukraine have averaged 13 percentage points more possession than Northern Ireland in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Ukraine (12 fully-tracked matches with us) and Northern Ireland (9) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Ukraine vs Northern Ireland final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland. Explore more on the Ukraine and Northern Ireland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.