Latvia vs 02.10.26 16:001 – 2Full Time
Montenegro — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Adžić double sinks Latvia as Montenegro win in Nations League
Montenegro beat Latvia 2-1 at Skonto in UEFA Nations League League C - 3, with Vasilije Adžić scoring both goals for the visitors. Latvia pulled one back but could not find an equaliser, leaving Montenegro to take all three points in this Group 2 fixture.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Montenegro struck early when Adžić converted after an assist from Risto Radunović in the third minute, putting the away side ahead 1-0. Latvia went into the break trailing by that scoreline before Adžić doubled Montenegro's lead in the 56th minute, making it 2-0. Markuss Strods, assisted by Kristers Čudars, halved the deficit for Latvia in the 82nd minute, setting the final score at 1-2.
The match produced three goals in total and was fairly even statistically, with Latvia holding 51% possession to Montenegro's 49% and both sides managing 14 shots apiece. Montenegro were considerably sharper in front of goal, however, putting six shots on target compared to Latvia's two. Latvia also won more corners, five to two, while picking up three more fouls than their opponents.
Vasilije Adžić scored twice for Montenegro and finished with a match-high rating of 9.4, the decisive figure in the away side's win.
Despite only matching Latvia's shot count of 14 apiece, Montenegro were far more clinical, landing six shots on target to Latvia's two.
Montenegro won 2–1 away against Latvia (half-time 0–1).
Latvia met Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 16:00 UTC at Skonto. Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov.
Team pages: Latvia · Montenegro · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 3' Goal: Vasilije Adžić (assist: Risto Radunović) — 0–1 · Watch Vasilije Adžić's goal video (3')
- 56' Goal: Vasilije Adžić — 0–2 · Watch Vasilije Adžić's goal video (56')
- 82' Goal: Markuss Strods (assist: Kristers Čudars) — 1–2 · Watch Markuss Strods's goal video (82')
Starting line-ups
Latvia (5-4-1)
- 23 Rihards Matrevics
- 3 Dennis Cirkin
- 4 Oskars Vientiess
- 5 Antonijs Černomordijs (c)
- 21 Deniss Meļņiks
- 11 Roberts Savaļnieks
- 14 Andrejs Cigaņiks
- 15 Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
- 10 Lūkass Vapne
- 6 Danila Patijčuks
- 20 Roberts Uldriķis
Montenegro (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Latvia 25%, the draw 24%, Montenegro 51%. It finished Latvia 1–2 Montenegro.
Montenegro's rating gap outweighs Latvia's home ground — Montenegro are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Montenegro's 51%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Montenegro at 51%?
Montenegro sit 181 points higher on our strength rating — 1324 to 1505. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.6% of 6,700 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–24–48.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Latvia at 25%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,082.
What did we measure but not count?
Montenegro have averaged 11 percentage points more possession than Latvia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Latvia (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Montenegro (10) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Latvia vs Montenegro final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Vasilije Adžić's goal against Latvia (3').
- Watch Vasilije Adžić's goal against Latvia (56').
- Watch Markuss Strods's goal against Montenegro (82').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Latvia 1–2 Montenegro. Explore more on the Latvia and Montenegro team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.