Azerbaijan vs 04.10.26 13:001 – 0Full Time
Lithuania — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Ten-man Azerbaijan hold out to beat Lithuania in Nations League
Azerbaijan edged Lithuania 1-0 at Bakcell Arena in a UEFA Nations League, League D - 4 fixture despite finishing with ten men. Abdulla Xaybulayev gave the hosts the lead in the 25th minute, finishing off a move started by Toral Bayramov, and that goal stood as the only one of the match.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The contest turned on discipline rather than chances created. Xaybulayev, scorer of the opening goal, was sent off in the 51st minute, leaving Azerbaijan to defend their lead for almost half an hour. Lithuania pressed for an equaliser but could not find a way through, and deep into stoppage time Armandas Kučys was also shown red, in the 90+7th minute, as tempers frayed at the finish.
Despite seeing only 38 percent of possession, Azerbaijan were the sharper side in front of goal, registering seven shots on target to Lithuania's three from an even 13 attempts apiece. The result lifted Azerbaijan to the top of their group on five points, while Lithuania remained second with four.
Xaybulayev scored the only goal of the match and was sent off early in the second half, finishing with a rating of 7.79 despite his dismissal.
Azerbaijan more than doubled Lithuania's shots on target, seven to three, despite having far less of the ball.
Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Azerbaijan met Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League (League D - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 4 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Bakcell Arena. Referee: Gustavo Correia.
Team pages: Azerbaijan · Lithuania · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 25' Goal: Abdulla Xaybulayev (assist: Toral Bayramov) — 1–0
- 90+7' Red card: Armandas Kučys
Starting line-ups
Azerbaijan (3-4-3)
Lithuania (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Azerbaijan 54%, the draw 26%, Lithuania 20%. It finished Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania.
Azerbaijan's rating edge carries it — Azerbaijan are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Azerbaijan's 54%. The draw at 26% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Azerbaijan at 54%?
Azerbaijan sit 97 points higher on our strength rating — 1422 to 1325. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 13,293 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 50–30–20.
Why only 54%?
Lithuania hold 9 more possession points (47 to 38 in recent games) across a 97-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.5% of 8,541 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,255. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Azerbaijan on 2 days' rest, Lithuania on 7. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 41,885 measured games no rest advantage repeated. Azerbaijan (8 fully-tracked matches with us) and Lithuania (10) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania. Explore more on the Azerbaijan and Lithuania team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.