Match report
Højlund penalty gives Denmark narrow win over Wales
Denmark edged Wales 1-0 in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture at Cardiff City Stadium, with the only goal arriving well after the interval in a match that stayed goalless through the first 45 minutes.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 75th minute when Rasmus Højlund converted from the penalty spot to put Denmark 1-0 ahead, a lead the visitors would not relinquish. Wales pushed for an equaliser but could not find a way past the Danish defence before the final whistle.
Wales had more of the ball, enjoying 56 percent possession, yet it was Denmark who posed the greater threat in front of goal, firing 13 shots to the hosts' 5 and putting four on target compared with Wales' single effort. The result lifted Denmark to second in the group table on six points, while Wales remained third on three.
Joakim Mæhle earned the highest rating on the pitch at 7.94, while Rasmus Højlund's 75th-minute penalty proved decisive for Denmark.
Denmark's 13 shots to Wales' 5 underlined their greater threat in attack despite having less of the ball.
Denmark won 1–0 away against Wales (half-time 0–0).
Wales met Denmark in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 4 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Cardiff City Stadium. Referee: Irfan Peljto.
Team pages: Wales · Denmark · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 75' Goal (penalty): Rasmus Højlund — 0–1 · Watch Rasmus Højlund's goal video (75')
Starting line-ups
Wales (4-2-3-1)
Denmark (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Wales 34%, the draw 25%, Denmark 41%. It finished Wales 0–1 Denmark.
Denmark's rating edge outweighs Wales' home ground — Denmark are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Denmark's 41%. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Denmark at 41%?
Denmark sit 106 points higher on our strength rating — 1699 to 1805. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.0% of 13,738 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–31–38.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Wales at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,819. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Wales (12 fully-tracked matches with us) and Denmark (15) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Wales vs Denmark final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Wales 0–1 Denmark. Explore more on the Wales and Denmark team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.