Match report
Italy overturn Türkiye fightback to win 3-1 in Nations League
Italy beat Türkiye 3-1 at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in a UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 fixture, climbing to second in the table with the victory. Gianluca Scamacca put the hosts ahead before the break, and further goals either side of Türkiye's equaliser settled the contest in Italy's favour.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Scamacca opened the scoring in the 26th minute to send Italy in 1-0 up at half-time. Türkiye responded early in the second half when Aral Şimşir converted an Evren Elmalı assist in the 61st minute to level the match. Italy regained the lead three minutes later through Riccardo Calafiori, who finished off a Nicolò Barella assist, before Francesco Esposito added a third in the 87th minute, set up by A. Romano, to complete the scoring.
Türkiye held more of the ball, with 55 per cent possession to Italy's 45, and edged the corner count 9 to 3, but Italy were sharper in front of goal, registering 15 shots to Türkiye's 14 with six on target against five. The result left Türkiye without a win after four matches, still searching for their first points in the group.
Calafiori scored Italy's second goal, finishing off Barella's assist, and was rated the match's top performer with a mark of 7.96.
Despite seeing less of the ball at 45 per cent possession, Italy produced more shots than Türkiye, underlining their efficiency in attack.
Italy beat Türkiye 3–1 (half-time 1–0).
Italy met Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 4). Kick-off was Monday, 5 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Referee: Szymon Marciniak.
Team pages: Italy · Türkiye · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Gianluca Scamacca — 1–0 · Watch Gianluca Scamacca's goal video (26')
- 61' Goal: Aral Şimşir (assist: Evren Elmalı) — 1–1
- 64' Goal: Riccardo Calafiori (assist: Nicolò Barella) — 2–1
- 87' Goal: Francesco Esposito (assist: Alessandro Romano) — 3–1
Starting line-ups
Italy (4-3-3)
Türkiye (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Italy 57%, the draw 24%, Türkiye 19%. It finished Italy 3–1 Türkiye.
Italy's rating edge carries it — Italy are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Italy's 57%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Italy at 57%?
Italy sit 104 points higher on our strength rating — 1869 to 1765. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 13,299 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 56–22–22.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Türkiye at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,104.
What did we measure but not count?
Türkiye scored +0.50 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,833 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Italy (17 fully-tracked matches with us) and Türkiye (19) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Italy vs Türkiye final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Italy 3–1 Türkiye. Explore more on the Italy and Türkiye team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.