Match report
France overturn deficit to rout Belgium 4-1 at Stade de France
France came from behind to beat Belgium 4-1 in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture at Stade de France, producing five goals across a dramatic second half. Belgium led at the break after Dodi Lukebakio converted a Roméo Lavia assist in the 35th minute, and that scoreline held until the hour mark had passed.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
France turned the match on its head in the closing stages. Désiré Doué levelled in the 77th minute, finishing an assist from Lucas da Cunha, before Rayan Cherki put the hosts ahead in the 81st minute with Michael Olise supplying the pass. Olise then added two goals of his own, in the 88th minute and again in first-half stoppage time of the second period, both set up by Doué, to complete the scoring at 4-1.
The home side dominated the contest statistically, holding 66 percent of possession and firing 23 shots to Belgium's 5, with 8 of those on target compared to 2 for the visitors. France also won 9 corners against Belgium's 2, though they picked up a yellow card to Belgium's two in a match refereed by Nick Walsh.
Désiré Doué scored once and laid on two assists, earning the top rating of the match at 8.86, while Michael Olise's brace of late goals underlined his impact off the bench of play.
France's dominance was reflected in their 23 shots to Belgium's 5 across the match.
France beat Belgium 4–1 (half-time 0–1).
France met Belgium in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 4). Kick-off was Monday, 5 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade de France. Referee: Nick Walsh.
Team pages: France · Belgium · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 35' Goal: Dodi Lukebakio (assist: Roméo Lavia) — 0–1
- 77' Goal: Désiré Doué (assist: Lucas da Cunha) — 1–1 · Watch Désiré Doué's goal video (77')
- 81' Goal: Rayan Cherki (assist: Michael Olise) — 2–1 · Watch Rayan Cherki's goal video (81')
- 88' Goal: Michael Olise (assist: Désiré Doué) — 3–1
- 90' Goal: Michael Olise (assist: Désiré Doué) — 4–1
Starting line-ups
France (4-3-3)
Belgium (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave France 58%, the draw 23%, Belgium 19%. It finished France 4–1 Belgium.
France's rating edge carries it — France are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of France's 58%. The draw at 23% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why France at 58%?
France sit 121 points higher on our strength rating — 2070 to 1949. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 13,299 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–25–17.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Belgium at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,826. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
France have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Belgium in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. France scored +0.57 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,833 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the France vs Belgium final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from France 4–1 Belgium. Explore more on the France and Belgium team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.