Sao Paulo vs 23.07.26 00:301 – 2Full Time
Atletico Paranaense — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Leozinho double sinks Sao Paulo as Atletico Paranaense come from behind
Sao Paulo suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Atletico Paranaense in matchday 19 of the Brasileirão Série A, played at Estadio Do MorumBIS, as the visitors overturned a half-time deficit to move further clear in the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Artur put the hosts ahead in the 19th minute, and Sao Paulo carried that lead into the break despite Atletico Paranaense's greater threat on the counter. The turnaround came swiftly after the restart: Leozinho equalised in the very first minute of the second half, then struck again five minutes later, assisted by L. Esquivel, to put the away side 2-1 up.
Sao Paulo dominated territory, enjoying 70 percent possession and a heavier volume of shots, but could not force a way back into the game after Leozinho's second goal. Atletico Paranaense held on despite conceding 15 fouls to their opponents' seven, with referee Alex Gomes Stefano booking one of their players, to secure a result that lifted them to third in the standings while Sao Paulo remained ninth.
Leozinho scored both of Atletico Paranaense's goals, turning the game on its head within six minutes of the restart, and finished with a match rating of 8.3.
Despite conceding twice, Atletico Paranaense outscored Sao Paulo's expected goals tally of 0.94 with 1.79 of their own, reflecting the sharper edge of their finishing on the night.
Atletico Paranaense won 2–1 away against Sao Paulo (half-time 1–0).
Sao Paulo met Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 19). Kick-off was Thursday, 23 July 2026, 00:30 UTC at Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques. Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano. Attendance: 6,487.
Team pages: Sao Paulo · Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 19' Goal: Artur — 1–0
- 46' Goal: Leozinho — 1–1
- 51' Goal: Leozinho (assist: Lucas Esquivel) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Sao Paulo (4-3-3)
- 23 Rafael
- 18 Wendell
- 2 Rafael Tolói
- 5 Robert Arboleda
- 19 Lucas Ramon
- 19 Lucas Ramon
- 8 Marcos Antônio
- 29 Pablo Maia
- 16 Damián Bobadilla
- 10 Luciano
- 9 Jonathan Calleri (c)
- 37 Artur
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
- 23 Santos (c)
- 37 Lucas Esquivel
- 33 Juan Aguirre
- 4 Arthur Dias
- 7 Steven Mendoza
- 14 Luiz Gustavo
- 16 Jádson
- 12 Gilberto
- 8 João Cruz
- 8 Joao Cruz
- 21 Leozinho
- 9 Kevin Viveros
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sao Paulo 40%, the draw 33%, Atletico Paranaense 27%. It finished Sao Paulo 1–2 Atletico Paranaense.
Level sides, home ground holds off Atletico Paranaense's cold finishing due to recover — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Sao Paulo the lean. The draw at 33% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Sao Paulo in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1660 to 1681. Sides this close won 43.2% of 15,699 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.1%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,362 games vs 44.9% across all 98,229 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 40%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Atletico Paranaense sit -0.36 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.6% of 1,281 games, vs 28.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Atletico Paranaense win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.0 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,009. The goals environment adds 3.8 points to the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Sao Paulo have shed 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,513 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Sao Paulo are missing 3 regular starters — Luciano, Sabino, Cauly — about 28% of their usual starting-XI weight. A body count alone told us nothing. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Sao Paulo 1–2 Atletico Paranaense. Explore more on the Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense won 2–1 away against Sao Paulo (half-time 1–0).
›Who scored in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Artur (19') for Sao Paulo; Leozinho (46') for Atletico Paranaense; Leozinho (51') for Atletico Paranaense.
›Where can I watch Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Sao Paulo 1–2 Atletico Paranaense are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense?
Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense have met 10 times — 6 wins for Sao Paulo, 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense and 2 draws.