Match report
Mirassol hold off Gremio fightback to win 2-1
Mirassol beat Gremio 2-1 in Brasileirão Série A matchday 19 action, moving to 18th in the table while Gremio stayed 16th despite the defeat. The hosts led 2-0 at half-time before a late reply from the visitors made for a nervy finish.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Bruno Santos opened the scoring in the 16th minute, finishing off an assist from Igor Formiga, and Mirassol doubled their advantage through Edson in the 40th minute after Denilson supplied the pass. That two-goal cushion took them into the break firmly in control.
Gremio pulled one back in the 77th minute when Carlos Vinícius converted a Cristian Pavón assist to make it 2-1, but Mirassol saw out the remainder of the match despite playing with a numerical disadvantage after picking up a red card during the game. Mirassol finished with 14 shots to Gremio's nine, though the visitors held more of the ball at 55 percent possession.
Reinaldo was Mirassol's top-rated performer on the night with an 8.3 rating, while Edson backed up his goal with a 7.6 mark of his own.
Mirassol's 1.38 expected goals comfortably outstripped Gremio's 0.59, reflecting the hosts' clinical finishing in front of goal.
Mirassol beat Gremio 2–1 (half-time 2–0).
Mirassol met Gremio in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 19). Kick-off was Friday, 17 July 2026, 23:00 UTC at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo.
Team pages: Mirassol · Gremio · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 16' Goal: Bruno Santos (assist: Igor Formiga) — 1–0
- 40' Goal: Edson (assist: Denilson) — 2–0
- 77' Goal: Carlos Vinícius (assist: Cristian Pavón) — 2–1
Starting line-ups
Mirassol (4-3-3)
- 22 Walter
- 6 Reinaldo
- 44 Gabriel
- 34 João Victor (c)
- 32 Igor Formiga
- 5 Japa
- 21 José Aldo
- 8 Denilson
- 77 Alesson
- 30 Bruno Santos
- 95 Edson
Gremio (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Mirassol 43%, the draw 33%, Gremio 24%. It finished Mirassol 2–1 Gremio.
Level sides, home ground holds off Gremio's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Mirassol the lean. The draw at 33% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Mirassol in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1670 to 1667. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,386 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,358 games vs 44.9% across all 98,207 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Gremio hold 7 more possession points (50 to 43 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.4% across 5,505 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Gremio win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,006. The goals environment adds 3.8 points to the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Gremio are missing 1 regular starter — Marlon — about 21% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Last 3 between them: Mirassol 3 wins, 0 draws, Gremio 0 wins. Most recently Gremio 0–1 Mirassol, 10 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 43.1% of 5016 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Mirassol vs Gremio final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Mirassol 2–1 Gremio. Explore more on the Mirassol and Gremio team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol beat Gremio 2–1 (half-time 2–0).
›Who scored in Mirassol vs Gremio?
Bruno Santos (16') for Mirassol; Edson (40') for Mirassol; Carlos Vinícius (77') for Gremio.
›Where can I watch Mirassol vs Gremio highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Mirassol 2–1 Gremio are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Gremio?
Mirassol and Gremio have met 5 times — 3 wins for Mirassol, 1 win for Gremio and 1 draw.