Atletico-MG vs Bahia — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
- 45′Atletico-MG, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Bahia, substitution:off
- 57′Bahia, goal:1–1assist
- 67′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 67′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 73′Bahia, substitution:off
- 73′Bahia, substitution:off
- 77′Bahia, yellow card:Holding
- 80′Bahia, substitution:off
- 86′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 87′Bahia, substitution:off
- 87′Bahia, yellow card:Holding
- Full-time1 – 1
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Match report
Atletico-MG vs Bahia — the facts
Atletico-MG and Bahia drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Atletico-MG met Bahia in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 19). Kick-off was Tuesday, 21 July 2026, 22:30 UTC at MRV Arena. Referee: Braulio da Silva Machado. Attendance: 31,018.
Team pages: Atletico-MG · Bahia · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Ruan Tressoldi (assist: Bernard) — 1–0
- 57' Goal: Ademir (assist: Rodrigo Nestor) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Atletico-MG (4-3-3)
- 22 Everson
- 6 Renan Lodi
- 4 Ruan Tressoldi
- 13 Lyanco
- 2 Natanael
- 30 Victor Hugo
- 25 Tomás Pérez
- 8 Maycon
- 28 Tomás Cuello
- 9 Mateo Cassierra
- 11 Bernard
Bahia (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atletico-MG 46%, the draw 29%, Bahia 25%. It finished Atletico-MG 1–1 Bahia.
Level sides, home ground holds off Bahia's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Atletico-MG the lean. The draw at 29% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Atletico-MG in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1663 to 1658. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,388 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,361 games vs 44.9% across all 98,214 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Bahia hold 10 more possession points (60 to 50 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.4% across 5,506 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bahia win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.5% of 24,575. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bahia are missing 2 regular starters — David Duarte, Luciano Juba — about 25% of their usual starting-XI weight. A body count alone told us nothing.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atletico-MG vs Bahia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atletico-MG 1–1 Bahia. Explore more on the Atletico-MG and Bahia team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.