Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
- 39′Vitoria, substitution:off
- Half-time
- 59′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 59′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 63′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 69′Vitoria, goal:1–0assist
- 73′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 77′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 78′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 78′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 78′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 78′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
Match report
Renato Kayzer strike gives Vitoria narrow win over Vasco da Gama
Vitoria edged Vasco da Gama 1-0 in a Brasileirão Série A Regular Season - 19 fixture at Barradao, moving them up to 10th in the table while Vasco remain 17th. The only goal arrived well into the second half and proved enough to separate two sides who had shared the ball evenly across the contest.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 69th minute when Renato Kayzer converted after being set up by D. Tarzia, making it 1-0 and settling what had been a tight, goalless first half. There were no further goals or incidents to alter the scoreline, and Vitoria held on to see out the remainder of the match.
Possession was split evenly at 50-50, though Vitoria had the edge in shots on target, forcing six saves or blocks to Vasco's three. Vasco actually posted the higher expected-goals figure, 0.77 to 0.52, suggesting they created the better quality chances despite failing to find the net.
Renato Kayzer scored the decisive goal for Vitoria, earning a 7.3 rating for his contribution, while Jamerson matched the top home rating of 7.5 without registering a goal or assist. Léo Jardim was Vasco's best-rated player on the night despite the defeat.
Despite losing, Vasco da Gama produced the higher expected-goals tally of the two sides, 0.77 to Vitoria's 0.52.
Vitoria beat Vasco DA Gama 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Vitoria met Vasco DA Gama in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 19). Kick-off was Thursday, 16 July 2026, 22:30 UTC at Barradao. Referee: M. Delgado.
Team pages: Vitoria · Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 69' Goal: Renato Kayzer (assist: Diego Tarzia) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Vitoria (4-1-4-1)
- 1 Lucas Arcanjo
- 13 Ramon
- 36 Luan Cândido
- 25 Cacá
- 83 Jamerson
- 44 Gabriel Baralhas (c)
- 12 Diego Tarzia
- 6 Emmanuel Martínez
- 88 Zé Vitor
- 33 Erick
- 91 Rene
Vasco DA Gama (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Léo Jardim
- 66 Cuiabano
- 30 Robert Renan
- 46 Carlos Cuesta
- 2 José Rodríguez
- 23 Thiago Mendes (c)
- 88 Cauan Barros
- 17 Nuno Moreira
- 10 Johan Rojas
- 28 Adson
- 77 Claudio Spinelli
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Vitoria 40%, the draw 31%, Vasco DA Gama 29%. It finished Vitoria 1–0 Vasco DA Gama.
Level sides, home ground holds off Vasco DA Gama's cold finishing due to recover — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Vitoria the lean. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Vitoria in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1632 to 1602. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,382 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,356 games vs 44.9% across all 98,173 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 40%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Vasco DA Gama sit -0.46 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.6% of 1,280 games, vs 28.9% for visitors finishing normally. Vasco DA Gama hold 12 more possession points (57 to 45 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.4% across 5,504 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Vasco DA Gama win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,366. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Vitoria scored +0.33 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.2% of 1,427 games, vs 28.0% against normal finishing.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Vitoria 1–0 Vasco DA Gama. Explore more on the Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.