San Jose Earthquakes vs 18.10.26 02:301 – 1Full Time
Nashville SC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
San Jose Earthquakes hold Nashville SC to a 1-1 draw at Avaya Stadium
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC shared a 1-1 draw in Major League Soccer at Avaya Stadium on Matchday 30. Nashville, top of the table before kick-off, left with a point that took them to 67 from their 30 games, while San Jose stayed eighth on 48.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Nashville took the lead in the 34th minute, when Hany Mukhtar scored to make it 1-0 to the visitors. That was how the match stood at half-time, even though San Jose had been the more threatening side in terms of shots and had forced four corners to Nashville's none.
San Jose levelled in the 70th minute. Preston Judd scored from Eduard Löwen's assist to make it 1-1, and neither side found a winner in the remaining time. Nashville held 53% of the possession but had only six shots to the home side's 14, though four of their efforts were on target against two for San Jose.
The result left San Jose unbeaten in nine games, while Nashville's run of four wins in a row ended. Nashville travel to CF Montreal in Major League Soccer on Saturday, while San Jose play away to FC Dallas.
Beau Leroux was the top-rated performer on the pitch with a rating of 7.53 for San Jose. Mukhtar was the highest-rated player on the visiting side, scoring Nashville's goal and earning a 7.27 rating.
San Jose had 14 shots to Nashville's six, yet only two of them were on target, compared with four of the visitors' efforts.
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
San Jose Earthquakes met Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC at Avaya Stadium. Referee: Joe Dickerson. Attendance: 18,000.
Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Nashville SC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 34' Goal: Hany Mukhtar — 0–1
- 70' Goal: Preston Judd (assist: Eduard Löwen) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
San Jose Earthquakes (5-3-2)
Nashville SC (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave San Jose Earthquakes 29%, the draw 24%, Nashville SC 47%. It finished San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC.
Nashville's strength rating edge, tempered by home advantage — We give Nashville SC 47% mainly because our strength rating has them 172 points higher, 1655 to 1483, though home sides in Major League Soccer tend to do well and that helps San Jose Earthquakes. The draw sits at 24%, just under the usual 25% for a gap this size, as both teams' recent games average 2.9 goals.
Why Nashville SC at 47%?
Nashville SC sit 172 points higher on our strength rating — 1655 to 1483. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,689 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 24–24–52.
Why only 47%?
Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,237 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,198.
What did we measure but not count?
Nashville SC scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,843 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Nikolas Tsakiris, an important player, and Benjamin Kikanovic, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC. Explore more on the San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.