New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 3′Toronto FC, own goal:0–1Own goal
- 28′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 46′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 52′Toronto FC, yellow card:
- 60′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 60′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 67′Toronto FC, yellow card:
- 68′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 68′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 71′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 82′Toronto FC, goal:0–2assist
- 86′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 86′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 87′Toronto FC, yellow card:
- Full-time0 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
Match report
Toronto FC beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 despite being outplayed
Toronto FC won 2-0 away to New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer on Matchday 30 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, taking victory from a game in which they had far less of the ball. The visitors went ahead after only three minutes, when Justin Che turned the ball into his own net to make it 1-0, and they held that lead through to the interval.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The home side dominated possession, finishing with 68% of the ball to Toronto's 32%, and had 15 shots to 6 and seven corners to one. Yet the sides each put four efforts on target, and the Red Bulls could not find a way past the Toronto defence. Their expected goals figure was 1.01 against 0.66 for the visitors, a gap that made the scoreline look harsher than the flow of play.
The result was settled eight minutes from time. Dániel Sallói scored in the 82nd minute from a pass by Jonathan Osorio to make it 2-0, ending any hope of a home recovery. Toronto collected three yellow cards in a match in which the Red Bulls were not booked.
The win lifted Toronto from 24th to 19th, level on 36 points with 17th-placed New York Red Bulls, who stayed in the same spot. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Toronto FC a 22% chance of winning. Toronto travel to Columbus Crew in Major League Soccer on Saturday 24 October, while the Red Bulls host Inter Miami on the same day.
Luka Gavran was the top-rated performer on the pitch with a rating of 7.73, ahead of team-mates Joshua Sargent (7.59) and Niklas Dorsch (7.52) as Toronto's three best-rated players.
New York Red Bulls had 68% of the possession but still lost, with Toronto FC restricted to 32% of the ball.
Toronto FC won 2–0 away against New York Red Bulls (half-time 0–1).
New York Red Bulls met Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Referee: Marcos de Oliveira. Attendance: 17,922.
Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 3' Goal (own goal): Justin Che — 0–1
- 82' Goal: Dániel Sallói (assist: Jonathan Osorio) — 0–2
Starting line-ups
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
Toronto FC (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave New York Red Bulls 55%, the draw 23%, Toronto FC 22%. It finished New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC.
Strong home advantage in this league drives the lead — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, we give New York Red Bulls 55% mainly because home sides in Major League Soccer out-perform the global norm, helped by their greater share of the ball. The draw sits at 23%, below the usual 27% for sides this level, chiefly because Toronto FC's finishing streak tends to cool.
Why New York Red Bulls in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1418 to 1431. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,828 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,237 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. New York Red Bulls hold 8 more possession points (50 to 42 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,150 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 55%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 23% and Toronto FC at 22%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,198. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
New York Red Bulls sit -0.73 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Out: Richmond Laryea, a star player, and Walker Zimmerman and Benjamín Kuscevic, important players. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC. Explore more on the New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.