Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano — La Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
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play_arrow5 clips- 14′Real Madrid, penalty goal:1–0Penalty
- 17′Real Madrid, goal:2–0assist
- 35′Real Madrid, goal:3–0assist
- Half-time3 – 0
- 46′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 51′Rayo Vallecano, goal:3–1
- 67′Rayo Vallecano, substitution:off
- 67′Rayo Vallecano, substitution:off
- 69′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 72′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 75′Rayo Vallecano, substitution:off
- 75′Rayo Vallecano, substitution:off
- 76′Rayo Vallecano, yellow card:Foul
- 85′Rayo Vallecano, substitution:off
- 89′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 90′Real Madrid, goal:4–1assist
- Full-time4 – 1
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Key Stats
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Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Match report
Mbappé double leads Real Madrid past Rayo Vallecano in five-goal romp
Real Madrid overwhelmed Rayo Vallecano 4-1 at home in La Liga's fifth round, racing into a three-goal lead inside the opening 35 minutes before Sergio Camello's second-half strike briefly threatened a comeback that never truly materialised.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 14th minute, and three minutes later he turned provider, setting up Álvaro Fernández to double the advantage. Jude Bellingham added a third in the 35th minute, finishing off a Vinícius Júnior assist, and Madrid went into the break in complete control at 3-0.
Camello pulled one back for Rayo Vallecano four minutes into the second half, giving the visitors brief hope of a way back into the contest, but Madrid never allowed it to develop into genuine pressure. Mbappé completed his brace deep into stoppage time, converting an Arda Güler assist in the first minute of added time to make it 4-1.
Madrid dominated territory and chances throughout, and the win moved José Mourinho's side up to second in the table while Rayo Vallecano, managed by Beñat San José, remained down in 15th.
Mbappé scored twice, including a first-half penalty, and added an assist for Bellingham's goal, finishing as the match's top-rated performer with a 9.0 rating.
Real Madrid held 56% of possession and outshot their visitors 24 to 18, underlining their control for long spells of the match.
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1 (half-time 3–0).
Real Madrid met Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Referee: Víctor García Verdura.
Team pages: Real Madrid · Rayo Vallecano · La Liga
Key moments
- 14' Goal (penalty): Kylian Mbappé — 1–0 · Watch Kylian Mbappé's goal video (14')
- 17' Goal: Álvaro Carreras (assist: Kylian Mbappé) — 2–0 · Watch Álvaro Carreras's goal video (17')
- 35' Goal: Jude Bellingham (assist: Vinícius Júnior) — 3–0 · Watch Jude Bellingham's goal video (35')
- 51' Goal: Sergio Camello — 3–1 · Watch Sergio Camello's goal video (51')
- 90' Goal: Kylian Mbappé (assist: Arda Güler) — 4–1 · Watch Kylian Mbappé's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
Rayo Vallecano (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Real Madrid 78%, the draw 16%, Rayo Vallecano 6%. It finished Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano.
Real Madrid's rating gap decides it — Real Madrid are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and La Liga home advantage on top makes it one-sided for Real Madrid. The draw at 16% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Real Madrid at 78%?
Real Madrid sit 358 points higher on our strength rating — 2138 to 1780. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge at home won 79.8% of 5,121 such games. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.2%). La Liga homes won 46.7% of 6,122 games vs 44.9% across all 100,077 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 77–15–8.
Why not higher?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Real Madrid's column. Across 11,058 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw only 16%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 14.4%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,048. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Real Madrid average 7 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 358 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 8 league games at home (7 wins, 1 draw), a run going back to March 2026. Rolling home runs look imposing but sides on a 6+ run won 56.2% of 13,601 games vs 54.5% class-expected — and in our walked test the rating already carried it, as it did for the season-long record. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this La Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Kylian Mbappé's goal against Rayo Vallecano (14').
- Watch Álvaro Carreras's goal against Rayo Vallecano (17').
- Watch Jude Bellingham's goal against Rayo Vallecano (35').
- Watch Sergio Camello's goal against Real Madrid (51').
- Watch Kylian Mbappé's goal against Rayo Vallecano (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano. Explore more on the Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano team pages or the La Liga page.