Match report
Bologna come from level to beat Lecce 2-1 at Via del Mare
Bologna won 2-1 at Lecce in Serie A on Matchday 6, taking the three points at Stadio Via del Mare in a match that produced three goals. The visitors went in front in the 17th minute when Riccardo Orsolini finished from a Nicolò Cambiaghi assist, and they carried that one-goal lead into the interval.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Lecce, who had 57 per cent of possession and 19 shots to 10, found the equaliser in the 64th minute. Danilo Veiga supplied the pass and Amar Ahmed Fatah scored to make it 1-1, ending a run of pressure that had brought ten corners to Bologna's three.
The decisive moment came in the 75th minute. Cambiaghi again created the chance, and Jay Enem converted to restore Bologna's lead at 2-1. Lecce could not find a second equaliser, and the visitors saw the game out without a booking-heavy finish, with no red cards shown to either side.
The result lifted Bologna from 19th to 13th, on five points from six games. Lecce, who began the day 12th on six points, stayed 12th with the same total after their sixth match.
Nicolò Cambiaghi set up both Bologna goals, for Orsolini in the 17th minute and Enem in the 75th, and was the highest-rated player on the pitch with 8.57.
Lecce had 19 shots to Bologna's 10, but the visitors matched them with five shots on target apiece.
Bologna won 2–1 away against Lecce (half-time 0–1).
Lecce met Bologna in the Serie A (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio Via del Mare. Referee: Luca Pairetto.
Key moments
- 17' Goal: Riccardo Orsolini (assist: Nicolò Cambiaghi) — 0–1 · Watch Riccardo Orsolini's goal video (17')
- 64' Goal: Amar Ahmed Fatah (assist: Danilo Veiga) — 1–1
- 75' Goal: Jay Enem (assist: Nicolò Cambiaghi) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Lecce (4-3-3)
Bologna (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lecce 29%, the draw 31%, Bologna 40%. It finished Lecce 1–2 Bologna.
Bologna's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Bologna are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade plus a weak Serie A home advantage on top give Bologna the lean. The draw at 31% is up from the usual 27.7% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Bologna at 40%?
Bologna sit 108 points higher on our strength rating — 1552 to 1660. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,822 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Lecce's column. Across 11,278 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,134 games vs 44.6% across all 101,096 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–32–38.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 31% and Lecce at 29%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Lecce win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,299. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bologna have averaged 15 percentage points more possession than Lecce in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Bologna won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Lecce. The record is 3 wins for Bologna, 3 draws and 0 wins for Lecce. These were 6 Serie A games played between 3 December 2023 and 12 April 2026. Latest meeting: 12 April 2026 — Bologna 2–0 Lecce. In 5,642 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lecce vs Bologna final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lecce 1–2 Bologna. Explore more on the Lecce and Bologna team pages or the Serie A page.