Match preview
Torino host Udinese in Serie A with both sides on four points
Torino welcome Udinese to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino on Serie A Matchday 6, with Ignazio Abate's side sitting 14th after five games. Their four points came from a mixed run: a draw at Bologna on 19 September, a 2-0 home defeat to AS Roma, and an away win at Fiorentina earlier in the month.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Udinese, managed by Kosta Runjaic, arrive 13th, also on four points from five matches. Their season began with wins over Monza and Venezia, but they have since lost three in a row, going down 2-1 to Lazio, 5-3 at Inter and 1-0 at home to Cagliari most recently.
Valerio Crezzini is the match referee. With only the goal difference of a few strikes between them, the sides are separated by a single place in the table, Torino 14th and Udinese 13th, each on four points.
Across their last 5 meetings, Torino won 2, Udinese won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Udinese 2–0 Torino on 2 May 2026. Torino's latest win in this sample was Torino 2–0 Udinese on 23 April 2025.
Team news as of 12 October: Torino have Franco Israel and Pietro Pellegri listed as out, and Cesare Casadei as doubtful. Udinese have Nicolò Zaniolo, Jakub Piotrowski and Idrissa Gueye listed as out.
Torino have taken a draw and a win from their last three, while Udinese's last three have all ended in defeat.
Torino meet Udinese in the Serie A (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Referee: Valerio Crezzini.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Torino 39% · Draw 32% · Udinese 29%
Home advantage edges Torino ahead of stronger Udinese — Our strength rating has Udinese 46 points higher, but Torino's usual home advantage and their habit of controlling the ball give them a slight lean at 39%. The draw starts at 29% for a gap this size and rises to 32%, mostly because draws run a little higher this early in the season.
Why Torino at 39%?
Home ground, against the rating. Udinese sit 46 points higher on our strength rating — 1657 to 1611. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,380 such games. Torino hold 10 more possession points (54 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,139 games, vs 43.9% when styles were level.
Why only 39%?
Because Udinese are the stronger side on our strength rating. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Torino's column. Across 11,294 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,139 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Udinese win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Torino come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals, 14 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Out: Nicolò Zaniolo, an important player, and Jakub Piotrowski, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Torino vs Udinese, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Torino and Udinese team pages or the Serie A page.