Genoa vs 10.10.26 13:002 – 1Full Time
Fiorentina — Serie A: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Genoa hold off Fiorentina after fast start at Luigi Ferraris
Genoa beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Luigi Ferraris in Serie A on Matchday 6, a result that lifted the hosts to 17th in the table on four points, one place above their opponents, who also stood on four points. Three goals were scored in all, two of them inside the opening quarter of an hour.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The home side struck within seven minutes, Milutin Osmajić finishing after a pass from Mikael Ellertsson to make it 1-0. Eight minutes later Osmajić turned provider, setting up Junior Messias for the second goal. Genoa went into the interval 2-0 up, despite having been the less patient side on the ball.
Fiorentina, managed by P. Vanoli, dominated possession after the break and pulled a goal back in the 73rd minute, when Johan Vásquez diverted the ball into his own net to make it 2-1. Genoa, coached by D. De Rossi, held on for the remaining time and secured the win.
Osmajić opened the scoring and then created Messias's goal, a goal and an assist that earned him the match's top rating of 8.28. Ellertsson also contributed an assist.
Fiorentina had 63 per cent of the possession to Genoa's 37 per cent, yet still lost.
Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1 (half-time 2–0).
Genoa met Fiorentina in the Serie A (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Luigi Ferraris. Referee: Fabio Maresca.
Team pages: Genoa · Fiorentina · Serie A
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Milutin Osmajić (assist: Mikael Ellertsson) — 1–0 · Watch Milutin Osmajić's goal video (7')
- 15' Goal: Junior Messias (assist: Milutin Osmajić) — 2–0 · Watch Junior Messias's goal video (15')
- 73' Goal (own goal): Johan Vásquez — 2–1 · Watch Johan Vásquez's goal video (73')
Starting line-ups
Genoa (3-4-2-1)
Fiorentina (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Genoa 32%, the draw 34%, Fiorentina 34%. It finished Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina.
Anyone's game — Fiorentina are the stronger side on our strength rating, and Genoa's control of the ball against their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade cancels out. The draw at 34% is level with the Fiorentina win, up from the usual 29.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Fiorentina at 34%?
Fiorentina sit 66 points higher on our strength rating — 1586 to 1652. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 10,361 such games. Fiorentina sit -0.39 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.7% of 1,357 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Genoa's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 39–29–32.
Why only 34%?
Genoa hold 5 more possession points (50 to 45 in recent games) across a 66-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,609 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why is the draw level with the Fiorentina win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,284. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Genoa sit -0.42 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Genoa come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals and 17 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Genoa vs Fiorentina final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Milutin Osmajić's goal against Fiorentina (7').
- Watch Junior Messias's goal against Fiorentina (15').
- Watch Johan Vásquez's own goal video (73').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina. Explore more on the Genoa and Fiorentina team pages or the Serie A page.