Match preview
Atalanta host winless Venezia in Serie A matchday six
Atalanta welcome Venezia to the New Balance Arena in the sixth round of Serie A, with Maurizio Sarri's side sitting 11th on six points from five matches. Paride Tremolada has been named as the referee for the fixture.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Atalanta's recent record is mixed. They won their two earliest games in the sequence, 1-0 against Bologna at home and 1-0 away to Hapoel Tel Aviv, but have since lost three in a row, most recently 2-0 at Juventus. Before that came a 2-1 defeat at AS Roma and a 2-1 home loss to Cagliari.
Venezia, managed by Giovanni Stroppa, arrive bottom of the table with no points from five games, in 20th place. Their last five results have all been defeats, including a 2-0 home loss to Lazio and a 4-2 home defeat by Fiorentina. Away from home they also lost 3-2 at Frosinone, 2-1 at Udinese and 2-0 at AC Milan, so they have yet to collect a point.
Across their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 4, Venezia won 0, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Atalanta 0–0 Venezia on 1 March 2025. Atalanta's latest win in this sample was Venezia 0–2 Atalanta on 20 October 2024.
Team news as of 12 October: Atalanta have Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana listed as out, and Giacomo Raspadori as doubtful. Venezia have Gianluca Busio, Andrea Adorante, Marin Šverko, Bartol Franjić, Armel Bella-Kotchap and 1 other listed as out.
Atalanta have lost their last three matches after two straight wins, while Venezia have lost all five of their recent games.
Atalanta meet Venezia in the Serie A (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at New Balance Arena. Referee: Paride Tremolada.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Atalanta 66% · Draw 22% · Venezia 12%
Atalanta's strength edge, trimmed by early-season caution — Our strength rating puts Atalanta 199 points clear of Venezia, which is why we give them 66%, though both sides being inside their first six league games trims that a little. The draw sits at 22%, up from a usual 19% for a gap this size, mostly because draws run slightly higher this early in the season.
Why Atalanta at 66%?
Atalanta sit 199 points higher on our strength rating — 1741 to 1542. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,575 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–18–10.
Why only 66%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Atalanta's column. Across 11,294 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,139 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Venezia have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Atalanta in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Venezia have shed 67 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,593 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Atalanta vs Venezia, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Atalanta and Venezia team pages or the Serie A page.