HighlightsSerie AYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow4 clips- 20′Cagliari, goal:0–1assist
- 32′Cagliari, substitution:off
- 36′Lazio, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′Cagliari, substitution:off
- 55′Lazio, substitution:off
- 55′Lazio, substitution:off
- 55′Lazio, substitution:off
- 59′Cagliari, yellow card:
- 64′Cagliari, substitution:off
- 64′Cagliari, substitution:off
- 66′Cagliari, yellow card:
- 76′Lazio, substitution:off
- 76′Cagliari, yellow card:
- 81′Lazio, substitution:off
- 83′Lazio, goal:2–1assist
- 84′Lazio, yellow card:
- 89′Cagliari, substitution:off
- 90+1′Cagliari, second yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 1
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Key Stats
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Lazio
Cagliari
Match report
Lazio beat Cagliari 2-1 as Pinamonti strikes late at Stadio Olimpico
Lazio beat Cagliari 2-1 at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A on Matchday 10, Andrea Pinamonti's goal seven minutes from time sealing a result that kept them top of the table. Cagliari had led through M'Bala Nzola, but they finished the afternoon a man down and beaten once more.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Nzola gave the visitors the lead in the 20th minute, converting Alieu Fadera's assist. Lazio levelled in the 36th minute when Gustav Isaksen scored from Tijjani Noslin's pass, and the sides went in at 1-1. The home side held 74% of the possession, though shots were close at 11 to 9.
The winner arrived in the 83rd minute, Pinamonti finishing after Alfonso Pedraza's assist. Cagliari's afternoon ended badly in the 90+1 minute, when Adam Obert was sent off, leaving them with ten men for the closing stages.
The result means Lazio have now won six games in a row and are unbeaten in 10, while Cagliari have lost four in a row. Lazio finished on 28 points, 15 clear of Cagliari in 11th. Cagliari host Frosinone in Serie A on Saturday, and Lazio visit Napoli in the league on Sunday.
Isaksen scored the equaliser in the 36th minute and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 7.67. Kenneth Taylor and Pedraza, who set up the winner, followed him in the ratings.
Cagliari committed 18 fouls to Lazio's seven, and four of their players were booked before Obert's dismissal.
Lazio beat Cagliari 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Lazio met Cagliari in the Serie A (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Stadio Olimpico. Referee: Andrea Colombo. Attendance: 12,649.
Key moments
- 20' Goal: M'Bala Nzola (assist: Alieu Fadera) — 0–1 · Watch M'Bala Nzola's goal video (20')
- 36' Goal: Gustav Isaksen (assist: Tijjani Noslin) — 1–1 · Watch Gustav Isaksen's goal video (36')
- 83' Goal: Andrea Pinamonti (assist: Alfonso Pedraza) — 2–1 · Watch Andrea Pinamonti's goal video (83')
Starting line-ups
Lazio (4-3-3)
Cagliari (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lazio 64%, the draw 19%, Cagliari 17%. It finished Lazio 2–1 Cagliari.
Lazio's strength edge outweighs Cagliari's expected bounce-back — We give Lazio 64% mainly because they sit 194 points higher on our strength rating, 1787 to 1593, though Cagliari's recent finishing, below what their chances deserved, pulls a little back their way since cold streaks like this tend to recover. The draw sits at 19%, close to the usual 20% for a gap this size, nudged down slightly by that finishing streak.
Why Lazio at 64%?
Lazio sit 194 points higher on our strength rating — 1787 to 1593. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 7,085 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 74–15–11.
Why only 64%?
Cagliari sit -0.40 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.3% of 2,981 such games where the class table expected 35.5%. Serie A home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to the other outcomes. Serie A homes won 43.3% of 6,174 games vs 44.6% across all 108,290 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,278. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lazio have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than Cagliari in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Lazio scored +0.75 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,210 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.1% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lazio vs Cagliari final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch M'Bala Nzola's goal against Lazio (20').
- Watch Gustav Isaksen's goal against Cagliari (36').
- Watch Andrea Pinamonti's goal against Cagliari (83').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lazio 2–1 Cagliari. Explore more on the Lazio and Cagliari team pages or the Serie A page.