Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 — Ligue 1: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow4 clips- 31′Stade Brestois 29, goal:0–1assist
- 43′Stade Brestois 29, yellow card:Foul
- 45′Le Mans, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 51′Le Mans, yellow card:Foul
- 55′Le Mans, goal:2–1assist
- 62′Stade Brestois 29, goal:2–2
- 63′Le Mans, substitution:off
- 63′Le Mans, substitution:off
- 63′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- 71′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- 71′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- 72′Le Mans, substitution:off
- 72′Le Mans, substitution:off
- 81′Le Mans, substitution:off
- 89′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:L. C. Laine M.off
- Full-time2 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Le Mans
Stade Brestois 29
Match report
Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 — the facts
Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 drew 2–2 (half-time 1–1).
Le Mans met Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade Marie-Marvingt. Referee: Aurelien Petit.
Team pages: Le Mans · Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1
Key moments
- 31' Goal: Romain Del Castillo (assist: Kamory Doumbia) — 0–1 · Watch Romain Del Castillo's goal video (31')
- 45' Goal: Dame Guèye (assist: Louis Mafouta) — 1–1 · Watch Dame Guèye's goal video (45')
- 55' Goal: Louis Mafouta (assist: A. Bourabaa) — 2–1 · Watch Louis Mafouta's goal video (55')
- 62' Goal: Kamory Doumbia — 2–2 · Watch Kamory Doumbia's goal video (62')
Starting line-ups
Le Mans (3-5-2)
- 98 Nicolas Kocik
- 26 Rayan Bamba
- 21 T. Eyoum
- 15 Noa Boissé
- 76 Yasser Larouci
- 9 Antoine Rabillard
- 8 Alexandre Lauray (c)
- 11 A. Bourabaa
- 18 Lucas Buadés
- 14 Louis Mafouta
- 25 Dame Guèye
Stade Brestois 29 (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Le Mans 41%, the draw 29%, Stade Brestois 29 30%. It finished Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29.
Home ground outweighs Stade Brestois 29's rating edge — Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground plus Le Mans' control of the ball give Le Mans the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Le Mans at 41%?
Home ground, against the rating. Stade Brestois 29 sit 73 points higher on our strength rating — 1628 to 1701. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,522 such games. Le Mans hold 8 more possession points (54 to 46 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 47.9% of 5,171 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 41%?
Because Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side on our strength rating. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Le Mans's column. Across 10,641 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,834. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Le Mans have gained 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.5% of 12,189 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Stade Brestois 29 have shed 77 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.6% of 9,638 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Romain Del Castillo's goal against Le Mans (31').
- Watch Dame Guèye's goal against Stade Brestois 29 (45').
- Watch Louis Mafouta's goal against Stade Brestois 29 (55').
- Watch Kamory Doumbia's goal against Le Mans (62').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29. Explore more on the Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 team pages or the Ligue 1 page.