Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsLigue 1 McDonald’sYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 5′Paris Saint Germain, goal:0–1assist
- 30′Stade Brestois 29, yellow card:Foul
- 39′Paris Saint Germain, substitution:off
- Half-time0 – 1
- 66′Paris Saint Germain, substitution:off
- 66′Paris Saint Germain, substitution:off
- 66′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- 77′Paris Saint Germain, substitution:off
- 77′Paris Saint Germain, substitution:off
- 78′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- 78′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- 84′Paris Saint Germain, yellow card:Time wasting
- 87′Paris Saint Germain, yellow card:Foul
- 88′Stade Brestois 29, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 1
Lineups
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Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Match report
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain — the facts
Paris Saint Germain won 1–0 away against Stade Brestois 29 (half-time 0–1).
Stade Brestois 29 met Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 13 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade Francis-Le-Blé. Referee: Willy Delajod.
Team pages: Stade Brestois 29 · Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
Key moments
- 5' Goal: Ferran Torres (assist: Ousmane Dembélé) — 0–1 · Watch Ferran Torres's goal video (5')
Starting line-ups
Stade Brestois 29 (4-2-3-1)
Paris Saint Germain (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Stade Brestois 29 14%, the draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 68%. It finished Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain.
Paris Saint Germain's rating gap outweighs Stade Brestois 29's home ground — Paris Saint Germain are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Paris Saint Germain a clear lead. The draw at 18% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Paris Saint Germain at 68%?
Paris Saint Germain sit 426 points higher on our strength rating — 1686 to 2112. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge on the road won 65.9% of 5,248 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Stade Brestois 29's column. Across 11,115 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.6% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 16–17–67.
Why only 68%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 68% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Stade Brestois 29 at 14%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,203. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. The goals environment takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Paris Saint Germain average 21 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 426 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Stade Brestois 29 have shed 60 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,748 such games vs 34.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain. Explore more on the Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain team pages or the Ligue 1 page.