Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior — Eredivisie: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsESPN NLYouTubeMatch Events
- 41′Fortuna Sittard, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′Excelsior, substitution:off
- 46′Fortuna Sittard, substitution:off
- 56′Excelsior, substitution:off
- 58′Fortuna Sittard, yellow card:Foul
- 66′Fortuna Sittard, substitution:off
- 66′Fortuna Sittard, substitution:off
- 68′Excelsior, yellow card:Foul
- 76′Excelsior, substitution:off
- 76′Excelsior, substitution:off
- 82′Fortuna Sittard, substitution:off
- 86′Fortuna Sittard, substitution:off
- 90′Fortuna Sittard, goal:1–0assist
- Full-time1 – 0
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Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
Match report
Fortuna Sittard snatch late win over Excelsior at Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard beat Excelsior 1-0 in Eredivisie Matchday 10, settling a closely contested afternoon at Fortuna Sittard Stadion with a goal in the first minute of stoppage time. The two sides went into the interval goalless, and little had separated them before Rodrigo Guth struck.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Excelsior had the larger share of the ball, with 57 per cent possession to 43, yet the hosts carried the sharper edge in front of goal. Fortuna Sittard managed seven shots to six, with five on target to two, and won seven corners to four. The visitors' best spell brought no reward, and the match drifted towards a stalemate.
That changed at 90+1. Mohamed Ihattaren supplied the pass and Rodrigo Guth finished to make it 1-0, leaving Excelsior no time to respond. The late goal lifted Fortuna Sittard from sixth to fifth, on 18 points, seven clear of Excelsior in twelfth. Excelsior have now lost three games in a row and are without a win in six. Both sides play away in the KNVB Beker on Wednesday, Fortuna Sittard at Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior at MVV.
Rodrigo Guth scored the only goal of the match at 90+1, converting after Mohamed Ihattaren's assist, and finished with a rating of 7.92. Justin Hubner topped the ratings for the home side on 7.97.
Fortuna Sittard put five of their seven shots on target, while Excelsior hit the target with two of their six.
Fortuna Sittard beat Excelsior 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Fortuna Sittard met Excelsior in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 11:15 UTC at Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Referee: Ingmar Oostrom.
Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · Excelsior · Eredivisie
Key moments
- 90' Goal: Rodrigo Guth (assist: Mohamed Ihattaren) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Fortuna Sittard (5-4-1)
Excelsior (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Fortuna Sittard 42%, the draw 23%, Excelsior 35%. It finished Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior.
Home advantage edges a level contest — Our strength rating has almost nothing between them, 1480 to 1484, so the usual home advantage is what puts Fortuna Sittard in front at 42%, even though Excelsior's greater control of the ball pulls the other way. The draw starts at 27% for sides this level but falls to 23%, mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why Fortuna Sittard in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1480 to 1484. Sides this close won 42.4% of 15,614 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Excelsior scored +0.58 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.5% of 1,631 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 42%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Excelsior hold 7 more possession points (43 to 36 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,924 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Fortuna Sittard scored +0.74 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,654 games, vs 27.8% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,416. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Excelsior come into this after a busy window — 15 arrivals and 14 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Fortuna Sittard have won their last 4 home meetings with Excelsior. Those matches were played between 10 February 2019 and 20 February 2026, across 4 Eredivisie games. Latest home meeting: 20 February 2026 — Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior. The result before this winning run is outside our recorded meetings. Across 5,376 historical matches following at least three consecutive home wins against the same opponent, hosts won 59.3%, compared with 57.9% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Eredivisie fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior. Explore more on the Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior team pages or the Eredivisie page.