Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Willem IIPEC ZwolleWillem IIPEC ZwolleMatch preview
Willem II host PEC Zwolle with a nine-point gap between them
Willem II welcome PEC Zwolle to the Koning Willem II Stadion for Eredivisie matchday 12, with the hosts 18th in the table on two points from 11 games. Adrie Koster's side arrive on the back of a 7-0 defeat at PSV Eindhoven on 31 October, their latest of four losses in their last five matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Zwolle, managed by Mirjam Clifford, sit 14th on 11 points, which leaves them nine points and four places above their opponents. Their form has been uneven: they beat GO Ahead Eagles 4-1, lost 2-1 to FC OSS, then edged ADO Den Haag 1-0 last time out.
Willem II have conceded 22 goals across their last five matches and scored eight, and they have failed to score once in that spell. Of their last five home games, they have drawn one and lost four, scoring four goals and conceding 16.
Across their last 5 meetings, Willem II won 2, PEC Zwolle won 3, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Willem II 1–2 PEC Zwolle on 14 May 2025. Willem II's latest win in this sample was PEC Zwolle 0–1 Willem II on 13 December 2024.
Team news as of 6 November: Willem II have Justin Hoogma and Amine Lachkar listed as out. PEC Zwolle have Sherel Floranus, Givaro Rahajaän and Filip Krastev listed as out.
Zwolle have won two of their last five, while Willem II have won one and lost four, conceding 22 goals along the way.
Both sides have faced Cambuur and Utrecht recently: Willem II lost 6-1 at home to Cambuur and 3-1 away to Utrecht, while Zwolle lost 1-0 to Cambuur at home and drew 1-1 at Utrecht.
Willem II meet PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC at Koning Willem II Stadion. Referee: Allard Lindhout.
Team pages: Willem II · PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
Sirius · Why these numbers
Willem II 37% · Draw 24% · PEC Zwolle 39%
Zwolle's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — PEC Zwolle sit 124 points higher on our strength rating, 1425 to 1301, though Willem II's home advantage and a cold finishing streak that tends to bounce back keep this close. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for this gap, and drops to 24% because both sides' recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why PEC Zwolle at 39%?
PEC Zwolle sit 124 points higher on our strength rating — 1425 to 1301. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–24–43.
Why only 39%?
Willem II sit -0.31 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
PEC Zwolle are 3 games into a new manager (Mirjam Clifford), appointed 13 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Sherel Floranus, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eredivisie fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Willem II and PEC Zwolle team pages or the Eredivisie page.