ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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ADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamADO Den HaagSparta RotterdamMatch preview
ADO Den Haag host Sparta Rotterdam with the Eredivisie table gap at six places
ADO Den Haag welcome Sparta Rotterdam to Bingoal Stadion on Eredivisie matchday 12, with the hosts 17th on six points from 11 games. Sparta sit 11th on 12 points, so the visitors are higher placed by six places and six points.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
ADO come into the fixture after a 1-0 defeat at PEC Zwolle on 1 November. Across their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two, scoring seven and conceding eight, and they failed to score once in that spell. Robin Peter's side beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1 on 17 October but lost 3-2 to Heerenveen a week later.
Sparta, managed by Rogier Meijer, arrive after a 3-2 win at Groningen on 1 November. Their five-game run brought two wins, two draws and a defeat, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded and no clean sheets. They drew 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard and lost 2-1 to Ajax in their two games before the Groningen trip.
Across their last 5 meetings, ADO Den Haag won 1, Sparta Rotterdam won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was ADO Den Haag 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam on 20 December 2023. Sparta Rotterdam's latest win in this sample was Sparta Rotterdam 6–0 ADO Den Haag on 22 November 2020.
ADO have won one of their last five and scored seven goals, while Sparta have won two and scored 12, though Sparta have also conceded 11 in that stretch.
ADO have won one of their last five home games, scoring eight and conceding 12, while Sparta have won two of their last five away games and conceded 12.
ADO Den Haag meet Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 17:45 UTC at WerkTalent Stadion.
Team pages: ADO Den Haag · Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
Sirius · Why these numbers
ADO Den Haag 34% · Draw 25% · Sparta Rotterdam 41%
Sparta Rotterdam's strength edge outweighs home advantage — Sparta Rotterdam sit 142 points higher on our strength rating, 1463 to 1321, which gives them a slight lean at 41% even though ADO Den Haag get the usual home advantage. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 25% because both sides' own recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why Sparta Rotterdam at 41%?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 142 points higher on our strength rating — 1463 to 1321. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–26–43.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and ADO Den Haag at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Sparta Rotterdam have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Sparta Rotterdam won 4 of the last 6 meetings with ADO Den Haag. The record is 4 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 draw and 1 win for ADO Den Haag. These were 5 Eredivisie games and 1 KNVB Beker game played at both grounds between 4 March 2018 and 20 December 2023. Latest meeting: 20 December 2023 — ADO Den Haag 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam lead the 6-match record, although ADO Den Haag won the latest encounter. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eredivisie fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam team pages or the Eredivisie page.