Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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UtrechtNEC NijmegenUtrechtNEC NijmegenMatch preview
Utrecht host NEC Nijmegen with one place and one point between them
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen meet at Stadion Galgenwaard on Eredivisie matchday 12 in the lower half of the table. Utrecht sit 12th on 12 points from 11 games, while NEC are 13th on 11 points from the same number, so the home side are one place and one point ahead.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Utrecht, managed by Anthony Correia, have won three of their last five, drawing one and losing one, scoring nine goals and conceding seven. That latest defeat came at Telstar, 4-2, on 1 November. Before it they had won 1-0 at Kozakken Boys and 2-1 at Twente.
NEC, under Dick Schreuder, have won two of their last five, drawn two and lost one. They beat Omonia Nicosia 3-1 at home last time out and won 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb earlier in the month. Their one defeat in that run was 1-0 at Heerenveen, and they have kept no clean sheet in the five games.
Across their last 5 meetings, Utrecht won 4, NEC Nijmegen won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Utrecht on 11 February 2026. NEC Nijmegen's latest win in this sample was Utrecht 0–1 NEC Nijmegen on 15 March 2025.
Utrecht have won three of their last five and NEC two, with NEC scoring 11 goals to Utrecht's nine but conceding eight to their seven.
Utrecht have drawn two and won one of their last five home games, while NEC have won once in their last five away games and failed to score in three of them.
Utrecht meet NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 19:00 UTC at Stadion Galgenwaard.
Team pages: Utrecht · NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie
Sirius · Why these numbers
Utrecht 39% · Draw 26% · NEC Nijmegen 35%
Home advantage edges Utrecht in front of NEC — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Utrecht's usual home advantage gives them a slight lean at 39%, though NEC Nijmegen's greater share of the ball, 55 to 48 in recent games, pulls the other way. The draw sits at 26%, just below the usual 27%, mainly because both teams' own recent games average 3.8 goals.
Why Utrecht in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1550 to 1573. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 39%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. NEC Nijmegen hold 7 more possession points (55 to 48 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Utrecht scored +0.49 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Utrecht come into this after a busy window — 11 arrivals and 16 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eredivisie fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen team pages or the Eredivisie page.